The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. This index is seasonally adjusted using the Philadelphia Fed's seasonal factors because its own history is not long enough with data only going back a couple of years. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/15/07 For May 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Empire State manufacturing index showed modest and welcome month-to-month strength in its May reading, at 8.0 vs. 3.8 in April. New orders also showed modest strength, at 8.0 vs. April's 3.9. Even the working down of unfilled orders let up in the month with the index unchanged at zero vs. two prior months of negative readings.
Price signals were mixed with prices paid down about 6 points to 34.4 and prices received up about 8 points to 15.6.
Today's data won't move markets which are focused on this morning's CPI data. But today's Empire State report falls in line with April's manufacturing report from the ISM and even March data on durable goods orders. The manufacturing sector, having slowed to a nearly dead stop early in the year, appears to be moving forward again.
The Empire State manufacturing index slipped to 15.8 in April from 29.0 in March. Moderation was across the board. New orders and shipments fell noticeably while remaining in positive territory. Unfilled orders index slipped below zero.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Consensus Forecast for May 07: 8.0
Range: 2.0 to 12.0
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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey. |
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