The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. This index is seasonally adjusted using the Philadelphia Fed's seasonal factors because its own history is not long enough with data only going back a couple of years. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Why Investors Care
| Released on 1/16/07 For Jan 2007 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
The Empire State Index fell back sharply in January, to 9.1 vs 22.2 in December and signaling a slowdown in the New York manufacturing region. New orders fell back sharply but still show growth, at 10.3 vs. 22.5. But unfilled orders showed further contraction, to -8.5 vs. December's -14.6.
Supply chain data really show evidence of slowing with inventories at -19.2 vs. December's -7.9. Deliveries times improved sharply, at a reading of -5.3 vs. 1.1 in December.
Despite the slowdown, price data showed pressure perhaps reflecting New Year hikes. Prices paid rose to 35.1 vs. 28.1 while prices received came in at 19.2 vs. 13.5.
Treasuries firmed despite the rise in prices as the overall readings will lower expectations for January's manufacturing data. Industrial production data for December will be released tomorrow with manufacturing data for January to be released Friday by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.
The Empire State manufacturing index edged down to 23.1 in December from 26.7 in November. Despite the slippage, the New York Fed index remained at a moderately healthy level. In December, new orders were healthy although backlogs turned negative. Importantly, prices paid and prices received eased somewhat. Given that some have concerns that manufacturing may be weakening too much, markets will be focusing on the Empire State manufacturing index which comes out one day ahead of the Federal Reserve's industrial production report.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Consensus Forecast for January 07: 20.0
Range: 15.0 to 25.0
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey. |
| 2007 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}