Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data. (Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce) Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/29/08 For Sep 2008 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
Durable goods orders in September unexpectedly rebounded but strength was isolated. Durable goods orders rose 0.8 percent in September, following a 5.5 percent decrease in August. The jump in September was far above the consensus projection for a 1.1 percent contraction. However, excluding the transportation component, new orders fell 1.1 percent, after a 4.1 percent drop the month before. The market had forecast a 1.5 percent decrease. The gain in the latest headline number was the result of a surge in aircraft orders - up 10.1 percent for defense aircraft and up 29.7 percent for nondefense aircraft. Outside of aircraft, durables orders remain weak.
Strength in September was led by transportation which jumped 6.3 percent. Also posting gains were machinery, up 0.5 percent, and electrical equipment, up 1.5 percent. But there were sharp declines in a number of other components. Industries with lower orders were primary metals, down 4.5 percent; fabricated metals, down 0.9 percent; computers & electronics, down 1.4 percent; and communications equipment, down 14.6 percent.
Year-on-year, new orders for durable goods improved to down 3.6 percent in September from down 5.8 percent the previous month.
Today's report is mixed after going into the detail. Certainly, the aircraft industry (or rather Boeing) is doing well despite the recent strike. But outside of aircraft, durables manufacturing is still on a downturn. For today, equities will like the numbers since they beat expectations and bond yields should firm a little. But many traders will be waiting on the sidelines until after the Fed's announcement at 2:15 EDT today on rates. Stay tuned.
Durable goods orders in August dropped sharply, pointing to contraction in manufacturing. Durable goods orders fell a revised 4.9 percent in August, following a 0.7 percent boost in July. Excluding the transportation component, new orders declined a revised 3.3 percent after no change in July. Weakness was led by aircraft and motor vehicles. Recent regional manufacturing surveys have been pointing to negative numbers for new orders.
New orders for durable goods Consensus Forecast for September 08: -1.1 percent
Range: -3.0 percent to +1.9 percent
New orders for durable goods, ex-trans., Consensus Forecast for September 08: -1.5 percent
Range: -3.9 percent to +1.0 percent
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}