The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. Five thousand consumers across the country are surveyed each month. While the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month. Why Investors Care
| Released on 6/26/07 For Jun 2007 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
June was a rough month for consumer confidence which doesn't seem to have responded to a dip back in gasoline prices. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell sharply, to 103.9 vs. 108.5 in May. Assessments of both the present situation and future outlook fell back. Job readings also fell back. And inflation expectations failed to improve, showing 12-month expectations at 5.4 percent unchanged from May -- a reading that won't ease inflation concern among policy makers at this week's FOMC meeting.
Jobs hard to get, an important reading for the bond market and its expectations for monthly payroll growth, rose 1.4 percentage points to 21.1 percent. Those saying jobs plentiful fell, down a sharp 2.1 points to 27.0 percent.
The current assessment of business conditions, tied indirectly to attitudes on the labor market, showed trouble with more saying conditions are bad (16.4 percent vs. 14.6 percent) and fewer saying they are good (27.4 vs. 29.0). These readings hint at weakness for July's overall confidence report.
Bonds firmed in immediate reaction to the release of the report which was accompanied by soft new homes data. This morning's chain-store reports were unusually weak, and combined with this report, may raise worries about consumer spending in June. Next timely data on the consumer will be Friday's consumer sentiment report where inflation expectations will be closely watched.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index jumped in May to 108.0 from 106.3 in April. Gains in May were evenly spread between expectations, at 89.2 vs. 88.2 in April, and the present situation, 136.1 in May vs. 133.5 the month before. More recently factors affecting consumer confidence have been mixed. Employment has been positive, stocks have been volatile, interest rates have risen, and oil prices have spiked.
Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for June 07: 105.0
Range: 103.0 to 108.0
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month. |
| 2007 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}