The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. Five thousand consumers across the country are surveyed each month. While the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/29/07 For May 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Consumer confidence popped up in May to 108.0 vs. 106.3 in April, which itself was revised 2.3 points higher. Gains in May were evenly spread between expectations, at 89.2 vs. 88.2, and the present situation, 136.1 vs. 133.5.
Jobs readings, which will be closely watched ahead of Friday's employment report, were little changed. Those saying jobs are hard to get fell back 4 tenths to 19.9 percent, but those saying jobs are plentiful were unchanged at 29.0%.
There was bad news in the report as 12-month inflation expectations, reflecting rising gas prices, jumped 4 tenths to 5.5 percent. Inflation expectations are closely watched at the Federal Reserve and today's results, especially if confirmed by University of Michigan consumer data on Friday, could push back further the outlook for rate cuts.
Today's results, a mix of stronger confidence along with rising inflation, are a plus for the dollar and a negative for Treasuries. Uncertain will be the effect on the stock market, which is focused to a large degree right now on mergers.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in April fell 4.2 percentage points to 104.0 while 12-month inflation expectations rose 3 tenths to 5.2 percent.
Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for May 07: 105.0
Range: 101.5 to 107.0
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Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month. |
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