The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. Five thousand consumers across the country are surveyed each month. While the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month. Why Investors Care
| Released on 4/24/07 For Apr 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Consumer confidence fell and inflation expectations rose in April, a reflection of high gas prices and a bad combination that hints at slowing growth ahead. The Conference Board's index fell 4.2 percentage points in the month to 104.0 while 12-month inflation expectations rose 3 tenths to 5.2 percent.
Among sub-components, current conditions fell back sharply in the month but, in a negative, are still far ahead of expectations. Jobs readings were weak with more saying jobs are hard to get (20.4 percent vs. 18.9 percent) and less saying they are plentiful (27.8 percent 30.3 percent).
The data were released along with a sharp drop in existing home sales, both pointing to economic weakness. Treasuries, despite the rise in inflation expectations, firmed in reaction to the 10:00 results while stocks eased. The dollar was little changed.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell back sharply in March while inflation expectations picked back up. The Conference Board's index fell to 107.2 in March from February's 111.2. Since the March reading, the stock market has improved and may boost confidence but gasoline prices also have been rising and could push confidence in the other direction. Subprime lending issues remain but have not had as much media play and that could be less of a negative for confidence.
Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for April 07: 105.0
Range: 103.0 to 107.5
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Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month. |
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