Highlights
Consumer confidence strengthened further in February according to the Conference Board's index which rose to 112.5 vs. 110.2 in January. The 112.5 level is the best of the economic expansion, since a 114.0 reading in August 2001. The strength was not accompanied by rising inflation expectations, an important plus that will ease concern of economic overheating. Twelve-month inflation expectations eased 1 tenth to 4.6 percent. Note that the Conference Board's inflation reading typically exceeds actual CPI levels, putting the emphasis then on the direction of the reading.

But there were negatives in the report. The index gain was centered in the assessment of the present situation (139.0 vs. 133.9), not the report's leading side of expectations which were little changed (94.8 vs. 94.4). Another negative were mixed job readings, not surprising given the soft trend in payroll growth and recent trouble in jobless claims. Those saying jobs are plentiful fell sharply to 27.7 percent vs. a very high 29.6 percent in January. On the positive side was a downtick in those saying jobs are hard to get, at 17.5 percent vs. January's 19.7 percent.

Treasuries fell back in reaction to the data which were released along with another sign of economic strength, a rise in existing home sales. Indications over the economy are mixed right now, highlighted by this morning's sharp weakness in durable goods orders. But the consumer, a less-than-robust jobs market or not, seems healthy. Thursday's chain-store reports for February will offer the next clues on the consumer sector.

2007 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/30 2/27 3/27 4/24 5/29 6/26 7/31 8/28 9/25 10/30 11/27 12/27 Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec