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Business Inventories
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Definition
Business inventories are the dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
6/13/07
For
Apr 2007 |
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Inventories - M/M change
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| Actual |
0.4%
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| Consensus |
0.3%
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| Consensus Range |
0.2%
to
0.5%
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| Previous |
-0.1
%
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Highlights
Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in April, below a 0.7 percent rise in business sales that shaved 1 tenth off the stock-to-sales ratio to 1.27. Retailer inventories, the new component in this report, rose 0.3 percent in a reading not distorted by auto dealers which showed a modest 0.2 percent increase. The two previously released components, manufacturer inventories and wholesaler inventories, rose 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent.
April was a softer month for the economy than May, and April's modest rise in inventories points to restocking in subsequent months, a plus for production and employment. Supply managers have done a good job this year, having quickly worked inventories down early in the year when growth was soft and favorably positioning the nation's supply chain for current strength.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
Business inventories eased in March for the biggest month-to-month decline in almost two years, slipping 0.1 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in February. March's dip in inventories was well below the 1.4 percent jump in business sales and pushed the stock-to-sales ratio to a very lean 1.27. More recently, factory orders - a component that goes into business inventories - rose 0.5 percent in April. Also, retail sales fell 0.2 percent in April. These suggest a possible rise in inventories in April.
Business inventories Consensus Forecast for April 07: +0.3 percent Range: +0.2 to +0.5 percent
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Trends
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Inventories tend to rise when economic conditions are strong; since sales are rising at the same time, the inventory-to-sales ratio may remain stable, or rise at a very slow pace. Inventories tend to drop when economic conditions are weak; since sales are falling at the same time, the inventory-to-sales ratio may remain relatively stable. The I-S ratio then begins to rise as sales fall more quickly than inventory growth. |
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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