2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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BOE Announcement
Definition
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee consists of nine members. The Committee meets monthly for two days, usually during the first week in the month in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. Changes in monetary policy are announced immediately after the meetings, but no details are available until the minutes are published two weeks later. Why Investors Care

Released on 5/10/07
Change
 Actual 25bp  
 Previous 0 bp  
   
Level
  Actual 5.5%  

Highlights
As universally expected, the Bank of England increased its key interest rate to 5.5 percent from 5.25 percent. Previously, the Bank's monetary policy committee surprised market participants with increases in rates in both November 2006 and January 2007. Its interest rate compares with 5.25 percent in the U.S., 3.75 percent in the EMU and 0.5 percent in Japan.

The consumer price index, the Bank's inflation measure increased 3.1 percent on the year in March. The Bank of England has an inflation target of 2 percent. When inflation is 1 percent more or less than the target, the Bank must write a letter to the Exchequer explaining why this happened and what they propose to do about it. The Bank governor sent such a letter for the first time when inflation reached 3.1 percent. House prices continue to climb. According to the Halifax, house price increases eased to 10.3 percent on the year in April from 11.3 percent in the previous month. Employment continues at record highs while unemployment is at its lowest in 2 years thanks in part to the boom in financial services.

The Bank issued the following statement

"The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5%.

"In the United Kingdom, output growth has remained firm. Business investment has been stronger than expected and, although indicators of consumer spending have been volatile, the underlying picture is one of steady growth. Credit and broad money continue to grow rapidly. The pace of expansion of the international economy remains robust.

"CPI inflation picked up to 3.1% in March. Lower gas and electricity prices and weaker import price inflation mean that CPI inflation is likely to fall back to around the 2% target in the course of this year. But the margin of spare capacity in firms appears limited and there are signs that businesses are more able to push through price increases. Relative to the 2% target, the risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term consequently remain tilted to the upside.

"Against that background, the Committee judged that a further increase in Bank Rate of 0.25 percentage points to 5.5% was necessary to meet the 2% target for CPI inflation in the medium term.

"The Committee's latest inflation and output projections will appear in the Inflation Report to be published on Wednesday 16 May.

The minutes of the meeting will be published at 9.30am on Wednesday 23 May."

Trends
[Chart] The Bank of England's primary goal is to contain inflation and it uses an inflation target to do so. The Monetary Policy Committee has been using the harmonized index of consumer prices for its inflation indicator - the CPI - since January 2004. The Bank's inflation target has been 2 percent since that time. Previously, the MPC used the retail price index excluding mortgage interest payments as its inflation indicator and a 2.5 percent inflation target. There has been a substantial spread between the two measures of inflation which can be traced to the way they are calculated. Among the key differences is the exclusion of council taxes and owner-occupied housing costs from the CPI. Arithmetic means are used to combine individual prices to construct the RPIX while geometric means that allow for substitution are used in calculation of the CPI. This formula differential accounts for nearly half of the difference in the two rates.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/11 2/8 3/8 4/5 5/10 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/8 12/6
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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