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Highlights
The Beige Book that was released in preparation for the December 11 FOMC meeting indicated that the economy is soft but with inflation pressures showing in the food and energy sectors. For economic activity, retail sales were soft, housing was glutted with homes for sales and with declining prices, and manufacturing was flat on average. Nonfinancial services were healthy. Retail sales were expected to be only slightly higher this holiday season than for last year, due in part to heavy discounting. Tourism is largely up and due to a jump in foreign visitors. Within manufacturing, weakness is primarily related to housing and autos while capital spending is supporting production. Consumer lending was little changed on net, while residential mortgage lending continued its downward slide. Consumer lending was little changed on net, while residential mortgage lending continued its downward slide. Increases in prices of final goods and services generally remained modest, except for food and energy. Labor markets remained relatively tight overall but loosened in some areas. Overall, the Beige Book points to modest economic growth in the fourth quarter with inflation primarily in food and energy. The Beige Book does not suggest that credit markets are having problems as severe as indicated by a number of specific lenders nor by Fed Vice Chair Kohn earlier today. However, the Beige Book is a little dated, being based on reports on or prior to November 16.
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