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What the Stock Charts Say Now, Plus 6 Takeaways on the 30-Year Bond
5/23/2013 9:05:00 AM
I'm writing this on Wednesday afternoon (May 22), so for all I
know we could wake up Thursday with the futures at new highs.
However, it's worth noting some of the technicals that today's
sharp reversal has put in play.
Some big picture thoughts on what the long bond action may mean:
The Nasdaq is cutting it closer. The Nasdaq-100 Index (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) closed $0.20 below TD Reference Close Down, but the PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF ( QQQ ) managed to close $0.02 above. Interpret it however you will, but see it. More importantly, even though it has not mattered for months, on Tuesday the QQQ completed a TD Combo Countdown Sell; the corresponding Risk Level is at $76.66.
Meanwhile the Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) "little guys" took it squarely on the chin. Both the Index ( RUT ) and the Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM) broke the daily TD Reference Close Down. Combined with the "price flip" printed today, if we meet the "lower open and lower low" conditions, the small caps look on their heels.
Don't tell corporate credit and derivatives that their equity and Treasury brethren are misbehaving.
While the latter were getting manhandled, the corporate bond market and related derivatives continued the never ending party. After $11 billion of new issuance Tuesday it was $12.6 billion yesterday. Spreads were flat and credit derivatives continue their incredible shrinking show, with both Merrill ( BAC ) and JPMorgan ( JPM ) CDS tighter by 7%.
Bottom Line: Unless you believe in unicorns, you cannot possibly think that equities will never again correct for more than just a few hours. In fact, we know the mantra that the sharpest corrections take place during bull markets. The question is how deep a correction we will eventually have -- 3, 5, 10%, or the October 19, 1987 variety? The 1987 crash was certainly a crash, but in the scheme of the budding bull market, it was little more than a 4-day correction. The underpinning of this bull market (corporate credit) remains intact, but we are stupid overbought at these levels, so manage accordingly.
As for the long bond, the story may be different. There's absolutely nothing structural to justify long term rates where they are. Unlike stocks, where companies (according to Bill Gross) are buying back $50 billion of their own shares every month, the long bond rate is being held down by the Fed "Mother of All Ponzi Schemes." This scheme will end like all Ponzis end, with the last sucker holding the bag. Unfortunately, we are all suckers because what will be decimated is the Fed's balance sheet (our balance sheet), and we will get hit again when our cost of money rises rapidly while the Fed's assets sink just as fast.
I could have, and I have, argued multiple times that the bond gig looked like it was on its last leg, only to see it turn the other way. Maybe this time is dÃ©jÃ vu all over again, but it doesn't mean that technically it doesn't look as ugly as ever.