Random Thoughts: The Third Dip Cometh!
Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on
Buzz & Banter
It's been 113 years since the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) has gone this long without a three-day decline, according to the sharply dressed and highly cerebral Jeff Cooper .
113 years is nothing to sneeze at; we can do a lot in 113 years, if we ever had that opportunity. That streak, however, will come to an end today IF the DJIA finishes to the downside, following the slippage of the last two days.
Here and now, S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 1634 is the level to watch; not only was that yesterday's low, but it will provide "gap fillage" from the hot-popper two Tuesdays ago. Broadening the aperture a bit, the false breakout above the trend-channel will bring us back to playing, playing in the band , with support at S&P 1600 .
I may be wrong - or, I have been wrong as of late - but we spoke about S&P 1600 as a first step to a potential move to S&P 1500 yesterday . That may or may not happen - time will tell, and my crystal ball is in the shop - which is why we take our trading journey one stair-step at a time in an effort to manage risk (rather than chase reward) and employ discipline over conviction as we together find our way.
S&P 1634 and S&P 1600 are levels on the downside while S&P 1655 (yesterday's high) will violate the emerging pattern of "lower highs" (a sign of distribution), if and when, the other way. Both charts can be found below.
- Yesterday, following a 7% haircut in Japan, stateside stocks
put on a brave face. The price action, in my view and with 23
years under my belt, could be summed up in one word: fascinating.
- The question remains whether, through a different lens, it
might qualify as "denial," or the first in the psychological
continuum of "denial-migration-panic," which is detailed in
The Three Phases of Leave
- What it did do is embolden the bulls, and while this
observation isn't back-tested, I've always been wary of
"back-to-back" Snappers as the first session creates hope and the
second one (the next day) often destroys it.
- I heard from two sources yesterday that there was "nothing
for sale" (from the institutions). That is obviously subject to
change, and it may very well tie into the denial vibe, but my
ears are your ears.
- This is consistent with
The Bubble in Complacency
although IF the dip shtick doesn't stick, this psychology is
likely to shift.
) are trying to provide some upside leadership, yet breadth
remains 3:1 negative.
- Did I mention that one of the few benefits of being the
Bubble Boy (working from home during my recovery) is the
M-I-C-K-E-Y time with Ruby after the market closes each day?
- Good luck and enjoy the three-day respite; you've most certainly earned it!