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Portfolio Positioning for the Coming Week: Risks and Opportunities
10/10/2010 6:20:00 AM
Soos Global Capital submits:
This article is a slightly different version of my weekly "Setting Up for the Opening Bell" series. It combines a review of this week's activity with a preview of next week's, and is supplemented with a thought-provoking sharing of actual positions along with key ideas that are driving our investment decisions.
All week long I've been trumpeting the horn of "political will", arguing that the markets face a heightened level of risk overall largely due to the question surrounding whether or not politicians (and in this, I broadly include all financial officials with policy implication jobs) would do as they say…or not. In colloquial terms: would they 'walk the talk' or not?!
The key to knowing what currency exposure to tolerate in one's portfolio, for example, is now, more than ever, driven by how you assess the likelihood of countries such as Japan, US, China and the EU getting together to multi-laterally deal with what is quickly becoming an all-out currency war of "devaluation-to-deter-deflation".
It was challenging to have these trumpeted sounds resonate while
the world anticipated the NFP data release, being that consensus,
rightly, holds that the problem in the US is about three things:
jobs, jobs and jobs!
Friday's NFP data can be summed up in one word: BAD! Or maybe two words: REALLY BAD!
One could try to find a silver lining, but you'd have to try
very hard. The mere 67k increase in private sector jobs was below
expectations and barely puts a dent in the massive private sector
unemployment situation. The collapse of government jobs, down 159k,
could only partly be explained by the elimination of Census
workers, but more troubling was the 76k component that reflected
state and local government job losses.
click to enlarge
The markets had a funny (or not so funny) reaction to the data…a quick up-trade on futures both here and in European markets, probably on the hope that the weak employment data would spur the Fed to launch QE2 that much sooner. But that mild euphoric reaction didn't last long and markets reversed course heading south into the US open. Then, with the positive news from the ECRI Weekly Leading Index coming out, the markets headed back up with the Dow piercing the 11,000 mark where it flirted most of the day (closing a tad above 11,006).
One has to wonder: Are market participants so giddy with the
prospect of more quantitative easing by the Fed and by other
central banks that they're willing to take stocks higher in an
These are just some of the all-important questions that investors need to be asking…..and answering!
In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. That's good news. And Friday's ECRI Leading Index is good news. But both should be taken in the context of this week's disappointing ADP private sector job report (down 39k) and Friday's troubling NFP (down 95k).
Furthermore, this weekend's G20/IMF meetings could cause considerable market movements depending on whether "political will" manifests itself in the form of a multi-lateral program for dealing with competitive devaluations or in the form of a free-for-all where open warfare is the effective modus operandi for now. This would not be a weekend to defuse from the market madness of the past week, but rather to stay glued to word coming out of DC.
As for the coming week (Week of Oct 11), the calendar of economic data is chock full of inflation and retail sales indicators, as well as sentiment indicators, most of it back loaded at the end of the week. More in focus is likely to be the steady stream of earnings that will be coming out through the week.
On the US economic front , Briefing.com offers the following:
Week of October 11 - October 15
And on the earnings front , it's worth a visit to Briefing.com's earnings calendar to see the lineup and expectations.
(BEAR IN MIND: this is NOT in any way meant to be investment advice! It is merely some food for thought. Each investor is responsible for his/her own investment decisions and should not take what is in this article as advice as to what is appropriate for their unique situation. The comments in this section reflect positions in accounts that we manage for our clients. Our client accounts are tailor made for each investor based his/her unique financial profile and risk tolerance. Please read the disclaimer at the end of this article and remember that opinions expressed here can change without notice):
Disclaimer : Soos Global Capital Advisors, LLC ("Soos Global") is a New York state registered investment adviser located in Harrison, New York. Soos Global may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. The publication of Soos Global's opinions on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Soos Global's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet. Any subsequent, direct communication by Soos Global with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of Soos Global, please contact the state securities regulators for those states in which Soos Global maintains a registration filing. A copy of Soos Global's current written disclosure statement discussing Soos Global's business operations, services, and fees is available from Soos Global upon written request. Soos Global does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Soos Global's opinions or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefor. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Soos Global) made reference to directly or indirectly by Soos Global in its opinion, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third party web site, will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s). Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client's investment portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indices and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Soos Global), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s).
See also China's Counter-Deflation Bet Pays Off Big on seekingalpha.com