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12/18/2012 1:00:00 PM
Stockmarket volatility has fallen to a six-month low, and an increase in volatility should be expected. As volatility expands, we should learn the direction of the next major trend.
Volatility Contraction Points to a Big Move
Market volatility tends to move in cycles from low to high values. Volatility has now fallen to a new six-month low. In the chart above, volatility is shown in the center with the Bollinger Bandwidth. This indicator measures the distance between theBollinger Bands . Previous six-month lows in this indicator are highlighted by vertical lines. A price move of at least 6% within the next two months followed each of those signals.
Volatility indicators tell us only that a large price move should be expected. Other indicators, like the Bollinger Percent B, canoffer clues about the probable direction. In the two examples shown in the chart above, prices moved up after the Bandwidth signal while Percent B was rising. SPY fell when Bandwidth was falling as volatility contracted. These indicators point to a possible decline in prices in the weeks ahead.
ProShares Ultra S&P500 ( SSO ) , a leveraged long trade, lost 0.45% last week. I have beenbullish on this ETF for the past month, but I think it is time to take profits on this trade. We may see some more upside but the indicators show that there is a high degree of risk in the market now. Leveragedfunds can magnify those risks, and closing this trade with aprofit of about 6% in a month seems like the safest approach to the market this week.
Action to Take --> Sell SSO at themarket price .
Gold Sets Up a Short Trade
GLD has fallen to the bottom of a trading range that has contained theprice action for more than three months. If GLD moves decisively below $164 and breaks its200-day moving average , then it could be a short trade. Rather than shorting GLD, I would recommend buying PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN ( DGZ ) , an inversefund that would gain when gold prices fall.
Action to Take --> Place a buystop order on DGZ at $11.86. Set stop-loss at $11. Setprice target at $13.15, which would be a new52-week high .
If GLD bounces off support, then the buy signal would be confirmed near the midpoint of the trading range. At that point, the trade would offer a potential gain of about 4% and risk of about the same amount. Until the chart of GLD looks more bullish, long trades seem unlikely to be winners.
This article originally appeared on TradingAuthority.com: