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Gold's Rally May Have Left Some Optimism in Reserve

By: Minyanville
Posted: 7/29/2013 4:45:00 PM
Referenced Stocks: FXE;GLD;SLV;UDN;UUP

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's rally Monday could have probed fresh highs, but it didn't, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Ranging narrowly sideways Monday didn't extend Friday's drop, but the session did not retrace it, keeping the decline's momentum intact so long as 82.20 were not recovered.

Eurodollar
Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Friday's highs held as resistance as price only ranged narrowly sideways Monday, so the rally's momentum remains intact so long as 1.3205 were to hold as support.

Gold
Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Friday's dip to the 1312.50 sell signal and recovery back above 1319.00-1320.00 extended sharply Sunday night. Testing 1338.00 stopped pessimistically short of probing fresh highs, which potentially is bullish from a contrarian perspective, so long as 1319.00-1320.00 now holds as support.

Silver
Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Monday's gap up above 20.00 immediately filled the gap back up to Thursday's close, and its immediate reaction down entered a narrow range around 19.90. Closing lower Tuesday would signal a bigger drop underway. Otherwise, back above Monday's high would resume the recovery.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Sunday night's test of 135-00 resistance held again and Monday extended down to 133-26, whose break Tuesday would suggest last week's decline targeting 132-24 has necessarily resumed.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Friday's retest of 104.00 did not yield any further bounce Monday as price ranged sideways, still needing to recover above 106.00 to avoid a deeper break targeting 99.00.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
There was no bullish reason for dipping Friday back into 3.55-3.60 support, which Monday's open proved by gapping down to new lows. The gap down under all prior lows prevents it from serving as a bottom, although gapping up back above would form a temporary island reversal.


Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com .