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Forex - Weekly outlook: July 15 - 19

Posted
7/14/2013 2:18:00 PM
By: Investing.com
Referenced Stocks:

Investing.com - The dollar was higher against the other major currencies on Friday, recovering from a sell-off earlier in the week after comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke saw traders reassess expectations on the timing of a possible reduction to the bank's easing program.

The euro was lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD sliding 0.21% to settle at 1.3068, trimming the week's gains to 1.62%.

The euro came under pressure after ratings agency Fitch downgraded France from its triple-A rating on Friday, citing growing government debt levels and the weak outlook for economic growth.

The dollar was also higher against the pound and the yen, with GBP/USD down 0.51% to 1.5107 at the close and USD/JPY climbing 0.28% to 99.25. The pound ended the week 1.16% higher, while the yen was up 1.68% for the week.

The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday after Bernanke said the Fed will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future, citing low levels of inflation and the high unemployment rate.

Bernanke said the bank will not raise interest rates until the U.S. unemployment rate hits 6.5%.

The comments came after the minutes of the central bank's June policy meeting showed that Fed policymakers remain divided over when to begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program.

Around half of Fed policymakers believe the bank should start to scale back bond purchases by the end of the year, while many others believe the labor market still remains too weak.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment ticked lower in July, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipping to 83.9 from 84.1 in June, compared to expectations for a reading of 85.0.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell to three-year lows against the greenback on Friday amid concerns over a slowdown in growth in China.

AUD/USD hit session lows of 0.8999, the lowest since September 2010, before settling at 0.9050, down 1.52% for the day and ending the week 0.77% lower.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data on retail sales, consumer inflation and housing sector activity. Monday's data on Chinese economic growth will be closely watched and a monetary policy decision by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 15

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Australia is to publish government data on new vehicle sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence.

China is to release official data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy's health. Beijing is also to produce data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

Switzerland is to publish government data on producer price inflation.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish the Empire state manufacturing index and a report on business inventories.

Tuesday, July 16

New Zealand is to release official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank's perspective.

The U.K. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, as well as reports on producer price inflation and retail price inflation.

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on economic sentiment in the wider euro zone.

The euro zone is to release official data on consumer price inflation.
Canada is to publish official data on manufacturing sales, a leading economic indicator.

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, July 17

The Bank of Japan is to release the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank's perspective.

The U.K. is to release official data on the change in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average earnings.

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.

The BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The bank is to hold a press conference after the rate announcement.

Canada is to release government data on foreign securities purchases.
The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts. The Federal Reserve is to release its Beige book.

Thursday, July 18

Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators and a private sector report on business confidence.

The U.K. is to publish government data on retail sales.

In the euro zone, Spain and France are to hold auctions of 10-year government bonds.

Canada is to produce official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Friday, July 19

In the euro zone, Germany is to release official data on producer price inflation.

The U.K. is to release government data on public sector net borrowing.
Canada is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation.




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