|Back to main|
Following the mighty 500-day average
I am a believer in long-term trends. Today we'll consider an
indicator that often proves very useful for detecting such
patterns: the 500-day moving average.
Like the wind, stocks move in a specific direction. The reason for this movement is not always clear. Maybe there's higher air pressure over the sea than over the plains. Maybe more investors want to own a stock than want to sell it.
When engineers want to track the movement of air, like in a wind tunnel, they use plumes of smoke. And when traders want to identify trends, we use moving averages.
Most people are familiar with averages such as the 50-day or 200-day, which can also be powerful indicators. The 500-day tracks much longer-term trends and is especially useful in today's market because the crashes of 2008 and 2011 continue to reverberate on many charts.
Stocks can appear ready for a decent move, but then stall or reverse. This kind of price action often make no sense until you add the 500-day to your chart.
Consider Terex , which looked bullish in April 2010 as its 50- and 200-day moving averages were both climbing, but then the 500-day came crashing down like an eagle on a prairie dog. TEX also surged higher this year on strong earnings growth. It hit the 500-day in mid-February and has been trading on either side of it since. Another recent example was Whirlpool , which rallied violently in January and February before tanking at the 500-day (orange line on chart below).
It also works on the long side, as we see with Amazon.com . The e-commerce giant has been trending higher since late 2008, but started breaking down in November. Some folks thought it was ready to collapse after the shares slipped below their 200-day, but the 500-day emerged as support. At this point, AMZN could go either way. The key point is that the 500-day is an important level to watch. Stocks seldom go straight through it without at least a pause.
Now, don't think that moving averages are some kind of black magic or like cosmic rays shooting down from the heavens. They should always be understood for what they are: tangible representations of processes that are inherently intangible, like the spread of specific products or the deterioration of an industry. Moving averages simply reveal these bigger economic and societal processes over different time periods.
Finally, let's consider a few more stocks where the 500-day is now potentially important.
- Lender Processing Services (LPS): Rallied back hard from a big selloff and now is looking vulnerable again as it hits the 500-day and potential resistance from October 2010.
- New York & Co. (NWY): Also hitting resistance at its 500-day and the same level where it gapped lower in August. Looks as if it will drop or at least pause.
- Zions Bancorp (ZION): Was stuck at the 500-day before Monday's weak earnings report. It fell on that news and looks like dead money into the foreseeable future.
- Louisiana-Pacific (LPX): Has been finding support above its 500-day day and making higher lows. Given its ties to the improving home-building industry, this one looks bullish.