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Earnings Preview: Triumph - Analyst Blog

By: Zacks.com
Posted: 1/28/2013 6:40:00 PM
Referenced Stocks: ESL;HXL;TGI;XLS

Triumph Group Inc. ( TGI ), an aerospace giant, is set to report third quarter 2013 results on Jan 30. Last quarter it posted an 18.9% positive surprise. Let's see how things are shaping up for this company.

Growth Factors This Past Quarter

Triumph experienced a strong year-over year revenue increase in the quarter due to improvement in organic revenue across all segments. Revenue hike was a result of an increase in the company's customers' production rates on existing programs and new product introduction.

The major contributors were its Aerostructures and Aftermarket Services segments, with a huge leap in revenue. Moreover, the company's acquisitions also played a vital role in strengthening the revenue. 

The company also reported improved margins for the quarter, due to effective cost measures taken, resulting in an operating income increase across all the segments. However, margins were impacted marginally by the additional integration costs the company had to bear for the acquisitions.

Based on the increased revenue across segments, operating income growth and margin expansion, management expects the revenue to increase in the quarters to come. Steady backlog, stronger balance sheet and significant cash flow generation were the added perks.

Earnings Whispers?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter stands at $1.41. Triumph has beaten estimates in all of the last four quarters, with a trailing four-quarter average positive surprise of 17.2%. The biggest increase was 19.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Estimate revisions have been minimal in the last 30 days, with one upward estimate revision in the past 60 days. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has remained unchanged for the third quarter over the last 30 days, while increasing by 0.7% for fiscal 2013.

The lack of downward movement in estimates coupled with a positive earnings surprise by the company in the last four quarters, signals that the third quarter might not be too different from the past quarters. Moreover, the stock carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Other Stocks to Consider

There are many aerospace companies that are likely to beat earnings this quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP (Read: Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method ), and a Zacks Rank of #1, #2 or #3 for this to happen.Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Esterline Technologies Corporation ( ESL ), with Earnings ESP of 18.03% and Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)

Hexcel Corporation ( HXL ), with Earnings ESP of 2.38% and Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Exelis Inc . ( XLS ), with Earnings ESP of 2.00% and Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).



ESTERLINE TECHN (ESL): Free Stock Analysis Report

HEXCEL CORP (HXL): Free Stock Analysis Report

TRIUMPH GRP INC (TGI): Free Stock Analysis Report

EXELIS INC (XLS): Free Stock Analysis Report

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