Divergences between Gold falling and Oil around 5-month highs is
making the gold:oil ratio fall to fresh 6-month lows, last at
16.80, lowest since mid Aug last year, and well below its 50 and
200 day SMA around the 18.00/40 level. Other metals like copper
also show healthy signs near 5-month lows, while other commodities
like wheat, corn or sugar move around multi-month lows.
Gold, as a leading indicator for inflation, is currently printing
fresh 6-week lows last at $1631 in the spot price and next futures
contract expiring in April, following worst GDP data for the EU
core since mid 2009. The precious metal is down -1.8% since year
started, while silver is about flat in the same period, thus making
gold:silver ration fall to 54 levels from past year's highs below
60, now trapped in between its 200 day SMA at 54.47, and the 50 day
SMA at 53.36.
Oil in the other hand keeps near 5-month highs area, last at $97.23
for WTIC, off Wednesday fresh highs at $98, given political
tensions in the middle east and talks with Iran on the nuclear
energy issues, which could extend sanctions to the Islamic nation,
keeping oil markets supply constrained. Oil is up more than +5%
since year started, while CRB index overall is only +1.7% higher
(an index tracks currently 19 commodities that originally started
with 28), with US 10 year bond yields topping out so far at
multi-month highs 2.05%, last around 2.00%.