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Analyst Actions: Barrick Gold Corp Target Lowered $2, But Keeps Outperform at Credit Suisse

By: MT Newswires
Posted: 5/10/2013 3:10:00 PM
Referenced Stocks:

New PV Agreement - NAV decline but overhang alleviated; Lowering Target Price to $36 (from $38)

Pueblo Viejo Dominican Corporation (PVDC) reaches an agreement in principle with the Dominican government: "The joint venture owned 60% by Barrick and 40% by Goldcorp reached the agreement in principle after eight months of negotiations with the government. Revenues to the government will be brought forward through a number of proposed changes. The changes could include (i) elimination of the 10% return embedded in the initial capex before the 28.75% NPI kicks in; (ii) an extension to the period over which PVDC will recover its capital investment; (iii) a delay of application of NPI deductions; and (iv) a reduction in depreciation rates."

Net impact of the changes is an economic benefit of $1.5B to the government over the life of mine: "This benefit is based on a 5% discount rate and $1,600/oz gold price. This is a $0.9B attributable impact to ABX and $0.6B impact to GG. Credit Suisse NAV for both ABX and GG is calculated based on a $1,580/oz flat gold price. The preliminary NAV impact is a 2.6% reduction to our ABX NAV and 2.1% reduction to our GG NAV."

While details are limited for detailed modeling at this point, we estimate the near term cash flow impact is more significant than NAV impact: "We estimate a 50/50 split of the pre-tax cash from 2013-2016 would reduce ABX's cumulative operating cash flow by 6% from 2013-2016 and GG's cumulative cash flow by 6.2%. Please refer to full report for details."

We reduce our TP to $36 (from $38), maintain our Outperform rating: "Our TP is based on an even weighting of our NAV valuation, reduced to $35 (from $36) and OpCFa based TP reduced to $37 (from $40). While we've reduced our TP by $2, the agreement alleviates an overhang and we expect a negative outcome was already at least partly reflected in ABX's share price."