Emerging-Market Investors See Dubai-Inspired Fall As Buy Call
By Kejal Vyas, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Emerging-market assets reversed early-session losses
Friday as investors used heavy selling sparked by Dubai's looming debt concerns
as a buying opportunity.
Bonds and stocks opened the session sharply lower after Dubai World, a state-
run conglomerate with interests in property and financial services, Wednesday
said it seeks a six-month standstill on debt repayments.
The news sent ripples across the developing world, but losses were pared by
midday. Money managers and analysts noted that even those assets with seemingly
little exposure to Dubai were trading lower, which is a chance to add to their
portfolios at better prices.
"The current sell-off is certainly an overshoot," said John Cleary, chief
investment officer at fund of funds Focus Capital, adding that his firm remains
a buyer in this market. "We see being long in emerging markets as very positive
and still one of the best opportunities out there."
For months, analysts have been recommending that investors use dips in
emerging-markets to buy up assets as long-term fundamentals are attractive,
especially in key markets around Latin America and Asia.
Selling pressure pushed the risk premium on JPMorgan's Emerging Market Bond
Index Global 12 basis points wider to 336 basis points over Treasurys for a loss
of 0.85%. The risk premium on the key measure is near levels last seen in the
beginning of November.
Elsewhere, the Bank of New York Mellon Emerging Markets ADR index was off 2.6%
after falling as much as 4% in early trading.
With last year's financial markets crisis still fresh in people's minds,
investors have been understandably weary of additional skeletons in the closet.
But "Dubai's current problems are a long overdue consequence of the bursting
of the global property bubble rather than the start of a new financial crisis,"
said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics in
London. "Nonetheless, they are a timely reminder that the legacy of past
excesses in heavily-indebted economies will linger for many years to come."
To be sure, reactions to Dubai's woes are likely to be exaggerated since U.S.
markets were closed Thursday for a holiday and Friday's trading session is
shortened, contributing to lighter volumes.
But investors said they remain buyers of assets into emerging markets,
especially the larger ones, like Brazil, India, China and Indonesia, where
stable economic data, along with sound financial systems and little leverage,
have many optimistic long-term.
Economic fundamentals in most emerging markets are still solid and Friday's
sell-off is more of a knee-jerk reaction, said Urban Larson, head of Latin
America equities at F&C Investments.
The outlook for the Middle East, however, doesn't look as promising. The Dubai
World announcement comes just as debt issuers from the Middle East in recent
months have become more aggressive with global debt offers, suggesting new
issuers are going to have to pay larger premiums.
Among the new names, Qatar last week issued the largest-ever government bond
from the developing world in a three-tranche, $7 billion offer.
Middle East, North Africa equities have also severely lagged other emerging
markets, rising around 15% in the last 12 months. The MSCI Emerging Markets
index, meanwhile, has gained 87%.
In a note to investors, Citigroup strategist Andrew Howell said much of the
region's underperformance is partly because the MSCI EM index, a widely
benchmark for investors, doesn't include stocks from the Middle East, except
those from Egypt.
But the region also faces long-term hurdles like "concerns over the level of
sustainable economic growth, falling profit margins, corporate governance,"
Howell said.
-By Kejal Vyas, Dow Jones Newswires; 212 416 2185; kejal.vyas@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-27-091304ET
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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