Fed's Bullard: Possible Fed Won't Hike Rates Until 2012
By Michael S. Derby, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- If the Federal Reserve sticks to the pattern set after
the last two recessions, interest rates will remain unchanged until 2012, a
Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.
Assuming the recession ended this summer, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
President James Bullard said interest rate hikes could lie well into the future,
assuming the central bank sticks to raising rates between two-and-a-half to
three years after the end of a downturn, as it did for the past two recessions.
But Bullard cautioned that pattern isn't set in stone, because central bank
officials are mindful of the possible mistakes of keeping interest rates too low
for too long, as many believe was the case in the middle years of this decade.
Bullard also said the market was missing the policy story, in a sense, by
thinking so much about what the Fed does with the Fed funds rates. "The market's
focus on interest rates is disappointing, given quantitative easing," he said.
It is instead the provision of liquidity the Fed has offered via its emergency
lending programs that is key. "The liquidity programs naturally taper off as the
crisis recedes," and are thus "not an inflationary concern," Bullard said.
Still, "the main challenge for monetary policy going forward will be how to
adjust the asset purchase program without generating inflation and still
providing support to the economy while interest rates are near zero," Bullard
said.
The official's comments came from a press release and presentation released to
the press in advance of a speech Commerce Bank Economic Breakfast, in Clayton,
Missouri. The remarks will be expanded when he gives the formal speech.
Bullard is not currently a voting member of the interest rate setting Federal
Open Market Committee, but he will be in 2010. His speech comes at a time where
financial markets have been intensely focused on how the Fed will start
unwinding its current policy stance given that the recession appears to be over.
Already, many of the Fed's emergency lending efforts are ending due to a lack
of market demand, while its major asset purchase programs will be wound down by
the first quarter of next year. But it's unclear what the Fed will do with what
effectively is its zero percent interest rate stance.
Financial markets have wondered if the Fed would move sometime next year, but
recent addresses from central bankers seem to suggest the Fed may not raise
rates for many months.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke this week and said an environment of modest
growth, weak labor markets and no threat of inflation mean the central bank can
keep rates at rock bottom levels for some time. Most private sector economists
don't believe the Fed will raise rates until after the middle of next year, and
many see the Fed holding off on tightening until 2011.
In his remarks, Bullard noted the recovery is being driven by a stabilization
in personal income and housing, along with abating stress in financial markets
and improving global growth. Labor markets are still problematic, although it's
good job losses have moderated.
Bullard described inflation as low, although the Fed's large balance sheet has
created a medium term risk to prices. He flagged volatile commodity prices as an
issue and added "inflation uncertainty remains elevated compared with last
fall."
The official also said the financial system's too-big-to-fail problem must be
dealt with.
-By Michael S. Derby; Dow Jones Newswires, 212-416-2214
michael.derby@dowjones.com
-0-
By Michael S. Derby
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--If the Federal Reserve hews to the pattern set after the
last two recessions, interest rates will remain unchanged until 2012, a Federal
Reserve official said Wednesday.
Assuming the recession ended this summer, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
President James Bullard said interest rate hikes could lie well into the future,
assuming the central bank sticks to raising rates between two and half to three
years after the end of a downturn, as it did for the past two recessions.
But Bullard cautioned that pattern isn't set in stone, because central bank
officials are mindful of the possible mistakes of keeping interest rates too low
for too long, as many believe was the case in the middle years of this decade.
Bullard also said the market was missing the policy story, in a sense, by
thinking so much about what the Fed does with the Fed funds rates. "The market's
focus on interest rates is disappointing, given quantitative easing," he said.
It is instead the provision of liquidity the Fed has offered via its emergency
lending programs that is key. "The liquidity programs naturally taper off as the
crisis recedes," and are thus "not an inflationary concern," Bullard said.
Still, "the main challenge for monetary policy going forward will be how to
adjust the asset purchase program without generating inflation and still
providing support to the economy while interest rates are near zero," Bullard
said.
The official's comments came from a press release and presentation released to
the press in advance of a speech Commerce Bank Economic Breakfast, in Clayton,
Missouri. The remarks will be expanded when he gives the formal speech.
Bullard is not currently a voting member of the interest rate setting Federal
Open Market Committee, but he will be in 2010. His speech comes at a time where
financial markets have been intensely focused on how the Fed will start
unwinding its current policy stance given that the recession appears to be over.
Already, many of the Fed's emergency lending efforts are ending due to a lack
of market demand, while its major asset purchase programs will be wound down by
the first quarter of next year. But it's unclear what the Fed will do with what
effectively is its zero percent interest rate stance.
Financial markets have wondered if the Fed would move sometime next year, but
recent addresses from central bankers seem to suggest the Fed may not raise
rates for many months.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke this week and said an environment of modest
growth, weak labor markets and no threat of inflation mean the central bank can
keep rates at rock bottom levels for some time. Most private sector economists
don't believe the Fed will raise rates until after the middle of next year, and
many see the Fed holding off on tightening until 2011.
In his remarks, Bullard noted the recovery is being driven by a stabilization
in personal income and housing, along with abating stress in financial markets
and improving global growth. Labor markets are still problematic, although it's
good job losses have moderated.
Bullard described inflation as low, although the Fed's large balance sheet has
created a medium term risk to prices. He flagged volatile commodity prices as an
issue and added "inflation uncertainty remains elevated compared with last
fall."
The official also said the financial system's too-big-to-fail problem must be
dealt with.
-By Michael S. Derby, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2214; michael.derby@
dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-18-090930ET
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
|