Russia's Fin Min Cuts Oil, Gas Production Outlook, Sees Decline
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Russia's oil production will decline year-on-year in the
next two years, as the current oil fields will dry out and opportunities at the
new fields will be limited, the country's Finance Ministry said Thursday, as it
cut the country's oil and gas production outlook for 2009, 2010 and 2011.
Oil and gas are Russia's main export, and the estimate of their production and
export, together with expected prices are the key parameters for the country's
budget.
In its projection of the budgetary policy for the period between 2010 and 2012
the ministry said it expects oil production to decline 0.6% to 485 million
metric tons (3.638 billion barrels) in 2010 from 2009, and drop a further 0.4%
to 483 million tons in 2011. The ministry expects 2009 production to be at 488
million tons, which is at par with the 2008 level.
The forecast decline, while consistent with many independent outlooks, is a
sharp change from the ministry's pervious estimate, which saw a steady rise in
production in all three years.
The ministry saw in November 2008 the country's 2009 production at 503 million
tons; 2010, at 514 million tons and 2011 at 518 million tons.
The ministry's oil export outlook has also been revised down to 245.5 million
tons in 2009, 243 million tons in 2010 and 241 in 2011.
The ministry revised its gas production outlook even more. While the previous
outlook saw gas production at 725 billion cubic meters, or bcm, in 2011, the
current one sees it 16% lower at 610 bcm. The gas production projection for 2009
and 2010 has also been lowered by 17% each to 580 bcm and 596 bcm respectively.
The ministry sees average oil prices to be almost stable till 2012. It expects
a barrel of Urals to average $54 in 2009 and to add $1 every year till 2012.
-By Alexander Kolyandr, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 20 7842 9410;
alexander.kolyandr@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-19-091350ET
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