) continues to be one for shorts to watch tonight as its
post-earnings downside follow-through is the more established
pattern in our database.
YHOO favors a widening pattern over the past four years,
extending its post-earnings share move in the next day's regular
session in nine of the latest 15 quarters. The longer-term trend
now just favors widening, with 18 narrowing moves between the
sessions and 20 wider next-day moves after evening earnings
releases. A recent quarter (39th event) saw YHOO shares decline in
the after-hours and hold that same decline the next day.
Looking deeper into YHOO's performance data, the stock has seen
an after-hours decline in 17 of the 39 earnings-driven after-hours
moves we've tracked, and 10 times, or 59% of the time, followed
that trade with a more-aggressive decline in the next day's regular
On the plus side, YHOO favors the short side as well. YHOO has
recorded an earnings-driven evening gain in 22 of the 39 quarters
we've tracked. It has widened that gain in next-day regular session
10 times, 45% of the time.
Yahoo! is due with its Q1 results after the bell tonight, and
analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting the company to report a
profit of $0.37 per share on revenue of $1.078 billion.
Here's the historical performance data:
On Jan. 28, 2014, YHOO dropped 2.8% in after-hours trade after
beating on Q4 EPS, meeting on revenue and setting light guidance.
The stock cratered lower the next day, ending the Jan. 29 regular
session down 8.7%.
On Oct. 15, 2013, YHOO edged up 0.2% in evening trade after
topping Q3 estimates but also issuing weak guidance. The stock
moved lower the next day, closing the Oct. 16 regular session down
On July 16, 2013, YHOO shed 1% in after-hours trade beating on
Q2 earnings but missing on revenue. The stock reversed direction
the next day, closing the July 17 regular session up 0.3%.
On April 16, 2013, YHOO declined 4.3% in night trade after
topping Q1 earnings estimates but missing on revenue. The stock cut
most of its downside the next day, ending the April 17 regular
session off 0.3%.
On Jan. 28, 2013, YHOO advanced 1.9% in after-hours trade after
beating Q4 estimates. The stock lost its upside the next day,
closing the Jan. 29 regular session down 3%.
On Oct. 22, 2012, YHOO gained 4% in evening trade after topping
Q3 expectations. The stock moved further north the next day,
closing the Oct. 23 regular session up 5.7%.
On July 17, 2012, YHOO gained 0.3% in after-hours trade after
coming in shy on Q2 revenue and beating on earnings. The stock
clawed higher the next day, closing the July 18 regular session up
On April 17, 2012, YHOO advanced 2.8% in after-hours action
after posting better-than-expected Q1 results and setting Q2
guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock
firmed higher the next day, ending the April 18 regular session up
On Jan. 24, 2012, YHOO slipped 0.8% in after-hours trade after
posting mostly in-line Q4 results and setting Q1 revenue guidance
in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock held that same
0.8% decline in the following Jan. 25 regular session.
On Oct. 18, 2011, the stock gained 2.5% after a Q3 beat and
revenue guidance that straddled the Street view. Shares rose 3% the
On July 19, 2011, YHOO declined 1.4% in evening trade after
meeting Q2 EPS estimates, coming in shy on revenue and setting its
forward revenue view mostly below estimates. The stock fell further
the next day, ending the July 20 regular session down 7.6%.
On April 19, 2011, the stock gained 2.6% after a narrow Q1 beat
and Q2 guidance that straddled the Street view. Shares rose 4.6%
the next day.
On Jan. 25, 2011, the stock fell 1.5% after mixed earnings and
revenue guidance below the Street view. Shares dropped 2.8% the
On Oct. 19, 2010, the stock edged up 0.9% in after-hours trading
as Q3 results did top the year-ago quarter. Shares rose a stronger
2% the next day.
On July 20, 2010, YHOO dropped 6.5% in evening trade after
beating Q2 EPS estimates by a penny. The stock added to its
downside the next day, closing the July 21 regular session off
On April 20, 2010, YHOO declined 3.9% in after-hours trade after
beating earnings expectations but reporting revenue that was just
shy of estimates. The stock headed deeper in the red the next day,
closing the April 21 regular session down 5%.
On Jan. 26, 2010, YHOO firmed 2.7% in the evening session after
reporting improved year-over-year Q4 results. The stock lost its
upside the following day, ending the Jan. 27 regular session down
On Oct. 20, 2009, the stock gained 5.4% in after-hours trading
when YHOO beat with earnings though showed a decline in revenue vs
the year-ago quarter. The share gain was trimmed to 2.8% the
On July 21, 2009, the stock fell 2.8% during after-hours trading
after a Q2 beat. Shares rebounded to gain 3.7% the next day.
On April 21, 2009, YHOO advanced 5.7% in after-hours trade after
reporting results in line to above Street estimates. It lost the
bulk of that gain the next day, ending up a mere 0.7%.
On Jan. 27, the stock gained 4.5% after reporting a Q4 beat.
Shares expanded that gain to 7.9% the next day.
On Oct. 21, 2008, shares rose 7.7% after an earnings meet. The
gain was trimmed to 2.6% by the close of trading the next day.
On July 22, 2008, the stock gained 2% during extended-hours
trading despite a Q2 earnings miss. Shares reversed to end down
4.7% the next day, however.
On April 22, 2008, YHOO slipped 0.8% in after-hours trade after
posting Q1 results ahead of expectations. It saw continued selling
the next day, closing the April 23 regular session off 1.6%.
On Jan. 29, 2008, YHOO cratered 10.2% in evening action after
meeting on Q4 revenue, beating on earnings, and setting mixed
guidance. It saw that downside narrow slightly the following day,
ending the Jan. 30 regular session down 8.4%.
On Oct. 16, 2007, YHOO charged 8.9% higher in night trade after
topping Q3 estimates. It pared that gain slightly the following
day, ending the Oct. 17 regular session up 7.9%.
On July 17, 2007, YHOO shed 4.1% in the evening hours after
reporting revenue and guidance in line. The loss was a slightly
deeper 4.8% the next day.
On April 17, 2007, YHOO dropped 8.1% in night trade on
weaker-than-expected Q1 sales, ex-TAC. It tumbled further the
following day, closing the regular session down 11.7%.
On Jan. 23, 2007, the stock was up 5.9% in the after-hours
session after the company reported ahead of the Street with Q4
results but guided mostly lower with its revenue projections. The
stock was up 7.3% the next day.
On Oct. 17, 2006, the stock was up 4.3% after meeting with EPS,
but it missed with revenues and guided lower for upcoming revs. The
stock fell 4.8% the next day.
On July 18, 2006, shares tumbled 13.7% in the evening hours
after YHOO reported revenues below Street and EPS in line. It
guided in a range that straddles the Street view. The loss swelled
to 21.8% the next day.
On April 18, 2006, YHOO surged 6% in evening trade after the
company beat Q1 expectations and guided mostly in line for its Q2
and full year outlook. The stock added to its upside in the April
19 regular session, ending the day up 7.1%.
On Jan. 17, 2006, YHOO fell 12.9% in evening trading after
reporting results a penny shy of the FC mean and issuing
disappointing guidance. The loss narrowed only slightly the next
day, to 12.2%.
On Oct. 18, 2005, YHOO advanced 0.4% in evening trade after the
company beat Q3 estimates and guided its Q4 and full year revenue
outlook in-line to higher than the then-current estimates. The
stock recorded a firmer upside in the Oct. 19 regular session,
jumping 6.5% between the bells.
On July 19, 2005 YHOO tumbled 9.9% after missing on revenue,
posting in-line EPS and posting a sales outlook that could miss the
low end of the Street forecast range. YHOO widened its downside in
the July 20 regular session, plunging 11.4%.
YHOO shares gained 5% in after-hours trade on April 19, 2005
after the company blew past expectations and guided ahead of Street
estimates. Its upside slimmed down a bit on April 20 as the issue
closed that day's regular session with a more modest 4.3%
YHOO climbed 1.7% the night of Jan. 18, 2005 after the company
topped Q4 expectations and guided its forward outlook in line with
current Street estimates. The upside failed to hold in next-day
trade, and YHOO closed the Jan. 19 regular session down 1.9%.
YHOO added 2.1% the night of Oct. 12, 2004, after the company
topped expectations and guided its Q4 outlook around the Street
view. It closed the Oct. 13 regular session up the same 2.1%.
YHOO plummeted 11.8% in the July 7, 2004 after-hours session
after the company missed revenue expectations and set a guidance
range that, at the low end, could miss the Street view. The stock
saw its downside narrow the next day, ending the July 8
bell-to-bell session down 7.7%.