Triggered by a number of regulatory policies promoting energy
efficiency, coupled with new technology, biofuel use and
increasing concern for climate change, the world's demand
for oil may peak before 2020, new research suggests.
Ricardo Strategic Consulting predicts the world will
scramble to purchase and stock crude oil some nine years from now
at no more than 4 per cent above 2010 levels. But demand will
gradually ebb so that by 2035, global demand will
be less than 2010's data.
The Ricardo projection placed oil demand at 3 per cent below
2010 levels in 2035. Accelerated increases in the use of
first-generation biofuels could lower oil demand in 2035 to 10
per cent below 2010 levels, the study said.
"Production of first-generation biofuels may increase by 5-6
times over today's levels without allowing for any additional
contribution from advanced biofuels, whose prospects remain
''The world is nearing a paradigm shift in oil demand,'' said
Peter Hughes, managing director of the energy practice of Ricardo
''The drivers working against oil demand growth are increasing
in number and intensity, with the consuming nations increasingly
focused on reducing their dependency, supported by an
ever-stronger legislative framework.''
Earlier, the International Energy Agency projected average
2010 oil demand at 88.2 million b/d. the IEA and most other
market observers see oil demand growth to extend well beyond