We expect aerospace company
Triumph Group, Inc.
) to beat expectations when it reports the first quarter of
fiscal year 2014 results on Jul 25, 2013.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that Triumph is likely to beat earnings
because it has the right combination of key factors.
Positive Zacks ESP:
Expected Surprise Prediction or ESP (Read:
Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method
), which represents the difference between the Most Accurate
estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +3.27%. This is
meaningful and a leading indicator of a likely positive earnings
surprise for this company.
Zacks #3 Rank (Hold):
We note that stocks with Zacks Ranks of #1, 2 and 3 have a
significantly higher chance of beating earnings. The Sell rated
stocks (#4 and 5) should never be considered going into an
The combination of Triumph's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and +3.27% ESP
make us confident of a positive earnings beat on Jul 25.
What is Driving the Better than Expected
We expect the continuing progress in the commercial aviation
industry to play an important role to boost Triumph's near-term
In addition, the company's strong order book and steady organic
as well as inorganic growth strategy are strong catalysts to
boost its future results. Triumph supplies several types of
products to the airline majors -
) and Airbus and gets orders from them at regular intervals.
During first-quarter 2013, Triumph acquired Primus Composites
Precision Castparts Corp.
). This acquisition will complement the company's operations and
will be immediately accretive to its earnings.
The positive trend is seen in the trailing four quarter average
surprise of 11.28%. Triumph's fourth-quarter of fiscal year 2013
surprise was 5.66%. Benefits from the acquisitions, improvement
in the aviation industry and cost control aided the surprise.
Other Stocks to Consider
Triumph is not the only organization looking up this earnings
season. We see other aerospace players who are likely to beat
Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc.
), Earnings ESP of +4.00% and Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Alliant Techsystems Inc.
), Earnings ESP of +3.13% and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
), Earnings ESP of +10.26% and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
ALLIANT TECHSYS (ATK): Free Stock Analysis
BOEING CO (BA): Free Stock Analysis Report
DUCOMMUN INC DE (DCO): Free Stock Analysis
PRECISION CASTP (PCP): Free Stock Analysis
SPIRIT AEROSYS (SPR): Free Stock Analysis
TRIUMPH GRP INC (TGI): Free Stock Analysis
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.