Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Miss This Earnings Season? - Analyst Blog


Eli Lilly and Company ( LLY ) is scheduled to report fourth quarter 2013 results before the opening bell on Jan 30. Last quarter, Eli Lilly had posted an earnings surprise of +5.71%. Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Eli Lilly has delivered positive earnings surprises in the last four quarters with an average beat of 9.25%.

Although revenues will be impacted by the loss of U.S. exclusivity for Cymbalta and Zyprexa, strong performance by Humulin, Alimta, Cialis, Trajenta, Humalog and Strattera will partially offset the negative impact of genericization. The animal health division should also continue to perform well.

Meanwhile, cost cutting efforts and share repurchases should boost the bottom line.

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Eli Lilly is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Eli Lilly is 0.00% since the Most Accurate Estimate is 73 cents, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Zacks #3 Rank (Hold): Eli Lilly's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) has little effect on the predictive power of ESP because the Zacks Rank #3 when combined with a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements, i.e., a positive Zacks Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 or #3.

AbbVie Inc. ( ABBV ) has an Earnings ESP of +2.41% and holds a Zacks Rank #3. AbbVie will be reporting fourth quarter earnings on Jan 31.

Actavis plc ( ACT ) has an Earnings ESP of +0.33% and holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Actavis will be reporting fourth quarter earnings on Feb 20.

Sanofi ( SNY ) has earnings ESP of +2.27% and holds a Zacks Rank #3. Sanofi will report fourth quarter earnings on Feb 6.

ABBVIE INC (ABBV): Free Stock Analysis Report

ACTAVIS PLC (ACT): Free Stock Analysis Report

LILLY ELI & CO (LLY): Free Stock Analysis Report

SANOFI-AVENTIS (SNY): Free Stock Analysis Report

To read this article on Zacks.com click here.

Zacks Investment Research

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

This article appears in: Investing , Business , Earnings , Stocks

Referenced Stocks: ABBV , ACT , LLY , SNY



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