Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
) is slated to release first-quarter 2014 results on Apr 10,
before the opening bell.
COMMERCE BANCSH (CBSH): Free Stock Analysis
FIRST INTST MT (FIBK): Free Stock Analysis
PNC FINL SVC CP (PNC): Free Stock Analysis
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In fourth-quarter 2013, Commerce Bancshares had missed the Zacks
Consensus estimate by 2.82%. Results suffered due to a fall in
net interest income and higher operating expenses. Nevertheless,
lower provision for loan losses and rise in non-interest income
partially offset the negatives.
Can the Kansas, MO-based bank deliver earnings beat this quarter?
Or will it disappoint again? Let us see how things have shaped up
for this announcement.
Factors to Affect Q1 Results
The overall market condition will play a major role in driving
Commerce Bancshares' results in the first quarter. The interest
rate scenario remained practically unchanged and the pressure on
net interest income (NII) continued. Therefore, we anticipate
Commerce Bancshares to report subdued NII growth for the quarter.
Moreover, we do not expect any substantial fall in expenses for
Commerce Bancshares. During the quarter, the company did not
announce any cost control program to reduce expenses.
Nevertheless, absence of acquisition and merger deals narrows
down the chances of a further increase in expenses.
On the flip side, with the Federal Reserve initiating tapering
earlier this year, long-term rates are expected to improve.
Though the effect of the same will not be felt any time soon, it
is a sign of economic recovery. Revival of investors' confidence
in the market is likely to have supported Commerce Bancshares's
fee income during the said quarter.
Moreover, toward the end of January, Commerce Bancshares declared
a 5% hike in its regular dividend payout to 22.5 cents per share.
This reflects a strong balance position, which will back the
company's first-quarter earnings.
Nevertheless, the initiatives by Commerce Bancshares to improve
profitability have failed to impress analysts. As a result, the
Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter remained stable at 68
cents per share over the last 7 days.
Our proven model does not conclusively show Commerce Bancshares
as likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the first
quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive
and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to
happen. Unfortunately, this is not the case here as elaborated
The Earnings ESP for Commerce Bancshares is 0.00%. This is
because the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus
Estimate stand at 68 cents.
Commerce Bancshares' Zacks Rank #2 increases the predictive power
of ESP. However, we also need to have a positive ESP to be
confident of an earnings surprise call.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some banking stocks that you may want to consider as our
model shows that these have the right combination of elements to
post an earnings beat this quarter.
First Interstate Bancsystem Inc.
) has an earnings ESP of +2.27% and a Zacks Rank #3. It is
scheduled to report first-quarter results on Apr 23.
The earnings ESP for
Wintrust Financial Corporation
) is +1.49% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2. The company is
expected to release first-quarter results on Apr 15.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
) has an earnings ESP of +1.21% and a Zacks Rank #3. It is slated
to report first-quarter results on Apr 16.