Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
) is scheduled to release its fourth quarter 2013 results before
the opening bell on Friday, Jan 24.
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Last quarter, Bristol-Myers had posted a positive earnings
surprise of 4.55%. We expect the company to beat expectations in
the fourth quarter as well.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that Bristol-Myers is likely to beat
earnings because it has the right combination of two key
Positive Zacks ESP:
(Expected Surprise Prediction), which represents the difference
between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus
Estimate, is +2.38%. This is a meaningful and leading indicator
of a likely positive earnings surprise for the shares.
Zacks Rank #3 (Hold):
Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1, 2 and 3 have a
significantly higher chance of beating earnings estimates. We
caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 and 5 (Sell-rated
stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the
company is seeing negative estimate revision momentum.
The combination of Bristol-Myers' Zacks Rank #3 and an ESP of
+2.38% makes us confident of an earnings beat this season.
What is Driving Earnings?
Bristol-Myers has delivered positive earnings surprises in two of
the last four quarters with an average beat of 6.93%. Drugs like
Baraclude (hepatitis B virus), Sustiva (HIV), Sprycel (leukemia),
Yervoy (skin cancer), Erbitux (oncology) and Onglyza/Kombiglyze
(diabetes), which performed encouragingly last quarter are
expected to perform well in the fourth quarter as well.
Moreover, the newly launched products, especially in the cancer
and diabetes fields, are expected to play a key role in boosting
the company's bottom line this quarter. We note that
Bristol-Myers has been trying to offset the declining sales of
some of its important products by bringing in new products
through in-licensing deals.
Other Stocks to Consider
Bristol-Myers is not the only company looking up this earnings
season. We also see likely earnings beats coming from these
companies in the medical sector:
) has an Earnings ESP of +9.01% and holds a Zacks Rank #3. Biogen
will be reporting fourth quarter earnings on Jan 29.
Perrigo Company Public Limited Company
) has an Earnings ESP of +1.88% and holds a Zacks Rank #3.
Perrigo will be reporting second quarter fiscal 2014 earnings on
) has an Earnings ESP of +1.92% and holds a Zacks Rank #3. Pfizer
will be reporting fourth quarter earnings on Jan 28.