Apple Inc. (AAPL) is holding a “Special Event” today in San Jose, California. The tagline for the event is “One more thing”; there has been lots of speculation as to what will be announced. Will it be the iPad mini, or will it be changes to the current computers? In my previous post I created a chart that demonstrated what has happened historically to Apple share price following a major product release. Below is an updated chart that includes the iPhone 5 release. Of course, the past is not a predictor of the future but it does give one perspective.
The following chart highlights eight major Apple product launches and their corresponding closing price and price change on the day of release. Starting on the left and moving through time, we show the iPhone, iPhone 3, iPhone 3GS, iPad 1, iPhone 4, iPad 2, iPhone 4s, iPhone 5. As the chart demonstrates, on five of the eight days of major product releases, Apple moved higher by more than 1.07%. On the day of the iPhone 5 release, the stock rose 0.19%. Obviously, the general trendline for the stock has been up since the release of the iPhone 3G.
Apple announced that sales for the iPhone 5 topped 5 million in the first weekend. They have also stated that there are more than 100 million iOS devices that have been updated with the iOS 6 operation system. Over the last four weeks they have had 9 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Sep 2012. The consensus EPS forecast is $8.93. AAPL is scheduled to provide an earnings report on 10/25/2012, for the fiscal quarter ending Sep 2012. The consensus earnings per share forecast is 8.93 per share, which represents an increase over the EPS one Year Ago. Last year they reported an EPS of $7.05 vs. a Consensus EPS forecast; which was a negative % surprise of -3.56.