American Public Education, Inc.
) is set to report first-quarter 2014 results on May 8. Last
quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of
Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors to Consider this Quarter
American Public's fourth-quarter 2013 results were
disappointing with both earnings and revenues declining year over
year. The poor results were mostly due to worse-than-expected
decline in total enrollment and new student enrollment levels.
Enrollments in the fourth quarter were affected by decline in
enrollments of students using Department of Defense Tuition
Assistance or TA benefits. The temporary suspension of the TA due
to the government shutdown in Oct 2013 and lowering of the
benefits by the military greatly hurt enrollments of military
Management expects military enrollment hurdles to continue in
the first quarter of 2014. New enrollments by students
using TA benefits are expected to decline once again in the
to-be-reported quarter due to ongoing budgetary constraints and
Accordingly, total enrollments are expected to decline in the
range of 5% to 7% while student starts are expected to go down in
the range of 7% to 9%. American Public expects revenues to remain
in the range of flat to an increase of 3% while first-quarter
2014 earnings are projected to be between 43 cents and 48 cents -
a significant decline from the prior-year level.
Management also expects new student enrollments at Hondros
College (acquired in Nov 2013) to increase 45% in first-quarter
Our proven model does not conclusively show that American
Public is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a
stock needs to have both a positive
and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not
the case here, as you will see below.
The Earnings ESP is 0.00%.
American Public has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) which when combined
with a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
We caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated
stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the
company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.
Other Stocks to Consider
Other stocks that have both a positive Earnings ESP and a
favorable Zacks Rank are:
) with Earnings ESP of +2.27% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Vulcan Materials Company
) with Earnings ESP of +5.88% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong
), with Earnings ESP of +7.14% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AMER PUB EDUCAT (APEI): Free Stock Analysis
FASTENAL (FAST): Free Stock Analysis Report
TEXAS INDS (TXI): Free Stock Analysis Report
VULCAN MATLS CO (VMC): Free Stock Analysis
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