Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
) is set to report its third quarter 2013 results on Oct 24
before the market opens. Last quarter, the company posted a 8.33%
positive surprise - the eleventh consecutive outperformance-
driven by the continued strong performance by Alexion's sole
marketed drug, Soliris. Let's see how things are shaping up for
Factors to consider this Quarter
Soliris is expected to continue its strong performance in the
third quarter as well. Soliris is available in the U.S, EU, Japan
and many other countries for the treatment of paroxysmal
nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH). PNH is a rare genetic blood
disorder. Sales of the drug have been boosted further by its
label expansion into the aHUS indication in the U.S. (Sept 2011)
and the EU (Nov 2011). Japanese approval for Soliris in the aHUS
indication came in Sep 2013.
Alexion expects to launch Soliris for the atypical hemolytic
uremic syndrome (aHUS) indication in major EU nations during the
course of 2013. Moreover, focus will also remain on updates
regarding Alexion's pipeline development. We believe that the
pipeline at Alexion must deliver.
In Aug 2013, Alexion voluntarily recalled and replaced the
remaining vials of a single lot of Soliris. Alexion stated that
this voluntary move was prompted by the presence of visible
particles in a few vials in a solitary lot of the drug. Though
current supplies of Soliris may not be interrupted, we believe
further slipups regarding Soliris will impact the drug's
supplies. This will be catastrophic for the company since it is
entirely dependent on Soliris for growth. This excessive
dependence on Soliris for growth is concerning.
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Alexion is
likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock
needs to have both a positive Zacks
(Expected Surprise Prediction) and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for
this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see
The Zacks ESP is 0.0%. This is because both the Most Accurate
estimate and the Zacks Consensus stand at 71 cents per share.
Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy):
Alexion carries a Zacks Rank #1. The Zacks #1 Rank when combined
with a 0.0% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat cannot be predicted with certainty for
Alexion, despite its impressive Zacks Rank, here are some firms
you may want to consider on the basis of our model, which shows
that they have the right combination of elements to post an
earnings beat this quarter:
Endo Health Solutions Inc.
), with Earnings ESP of +2.66% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong
), with Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
), with Earnings ESP of +0.99% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
ALEXION PHARMA (ALXN): Free Stock Analysis
ENDO PHARMACEUT (ENDP): Free Stock Analysis
MCKESSON CORP (MCK): Free Stock Analysis
MYLAN INC (MYL): Free Stock Analysis Report
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