LinkedIn's (
LNKD
) stock
opened
at $83 after its IPO was priced at $45 and reached an intra-day
high of around $123 on the first day. And then a month of
carnage started which saw the stock plummeting by 51% from its
all-time high. Even though the stock has impressively recovered,
climbing almost 75% from its June 20 lows of $60, we
remain fundamentally bearish on LinkedIn.
Our valuation is in line with the company's earlier IPO guidance
and slightly higher than the implied valuations at which LinkedIn
traded previously on services such as SharePost and SecondMarket.
Below, we highlight the key factors driving the
Trefis price estimate for LinkedIn of $30
. [1] We also highlight how the run up in LinkedIn's
stock that has occurred in late June and early July is primarily
driven by positive coverage from banks as well as compare how the
Trefis revenue estimates for LinkedIn compare to consensus.
How LinkedIn Makes Money
LinkedIn competes with Monster (
MWW
) in the recruitment services market, as well as social
networking portals like Facebook and Twitter. The company also
faces competition from Google (
GOOG
) and Yahoo (
YHOO
) in the online advertising market.
Our $3.2 billion valuation for LinkedIn breaks-up roughly as
follows:
- Recruitment Services & Job Postings: $1.6 billion
(48%)
- LinkedIn Ads & Marketing: $0.9 billion (28%)
- Premium Account Subscriptions: $0.5 billion (15%)
A Few Key Insights:
- Although LinkedIn is commonly described as a professional
network, most of its value comes from the sales of subscriptions,
job postings and recruitment services that make LinkedIn a
very different investment compared to Facebook, which relies on
advertising.
See our analysis of Facebook here
.
- LinkedIn had more than 100 million registered members by
March 2011 compared with more than 750 million registered users
for Facebook.
- We estimate the number of job postings on LinkedIn were
around 300K in 2010 compared to about 2 million for job site
Monster.com. LinkedIn will have to grow job postings
significantly over the next few years to support the
valuation.
- We estimate that LinkedIn had about 250K of premium account
subscribers in 2010 paying on average about $250 annually. We
forecast that LinkedIn will grow premium subscribers to over 1
million by the end of the Trefis forecast period.
Wall St. Banks Drive Late June-July Rally
Towards the end of June, banks such as Bank of America and J.P.
Morgan released positive initiating coverage of LinkedIn with price
targets of $92 and $85, respectively. This helped continue
LinkedIn's rally, even though the stock price has now crossed the
price targets set by these banks. It's unclear what
fundamental forecasts the banks are so bullish on that justifies
their price estimates. As we've highlighted above, we're
pretty bullish on LinkedIn's key business drivers as well, yet the
resulting valuation doesn't justify the current stock price.
Comparison of Trefis and Consensus Revenue Forecasts for
LinkedIn
One way to compare the Trefis analysis and valuation for
LinkedIn to that of others is to look at the consensus revenue
forecasts for LinkedIn. The chart below highlights the growth
of LinkedIn's historical revenues from $32 million in 2007 to about
$243 million in 2010. Based on our forecasts for LinkedIn's
key drivers, we have an implied revenue forecast of about $450
million in 2011 and about $680 million in 2012. This places
us slightly above the low estimate for consensus revenues as of
July 2011.
The highest estimates factored into consensus show nearly $900
million in 2011 revenues for LinkedIn and about $3.4 billion in
2012. The average consensus figures (shown above in purple)
are based on a total of 8 analyst estimates and do not include the
Trefis estimates.
Trefis Outlook Summary
Overall, LinkedIn will have to maintain the significant fees it
charges to corporate and business customers while growing its
corporate and business customer base significantly from a few
thousand customers today to tens of thousands over the next few
years. At the same time, LinkedIn will need to maintain or grow its
job post pricing in the face of competition from a variety of
sources (Monster, Careerbuilder, TheLadders, Dice).
Continuing to grow the LinkedIn member base, increasing the
amount of information that LinkedIn members share and the freshness
of that information will be crucial to maintaining demand from
recruiters and business for LinkedIn's services. By having the most
comprehensive and up to date information on active and passive job
candidates, LinkedIn will position itself to be a destination site
for recruiters looking for highly effective, targeted job postings
and advertisements.
See additional driver breakdowns in our full
analysis for LinkedIn.
Note:
-
Our basic price estimate is $34 but shows $30 after
accounting for stock option dilution. We use the Treasury Stock
method to determine the net impact of option dilution.
LinkedIn has the equivalent of 16.2 million in shares
outstanding in the form of employee stock options and these
options have an average strike price of $5.86. In other
words, if someone tried to buy all of LinkedIn today, they
would end up having to buy out not only the 94.5 million in
class A and class B common stock outstanding, but also about
13.1 million in net converted employee stock options (based on
the Trefis valuation of LinkedIn)