The mobile sector saw quite a few developments in the past week.
Nokia's (
NOK
) U.S. campaign got off to a solid start this holiday
season with three of the largest national carriers in the U.S.
launching their respective 'exclusive' Lumias. In China as well,
the Finnish handset maker seems to be making headway, having roped
in China Mobile for its Lumia Windows Phone 8 plans. Apple (
AAPL
) also seems likely to launch the iPhone 5 in China before the end
of the year as both China Unicom (
CHU
) and China Telecom (
CHA
) continued to be optimistic about securing the required regulatory
approvals before then. Research in Motion (
RIMM
) also chimed in with good news this week, announcing a January 30
media event to unveil its new BlackBerry 10 platform as well
as the first smartphones on the operating system.
Nokia
Nokia's comeback in the U.S. is getting carrier support all
right. Soon after AT&T and Verizon made
their respective 'exclusive' Lumias available for sale, T-Mobile
announced Wednesday the launch of its first Windows Phone 8
handsets. Along with the higher-priced HTC 8X, the fourth largest
carrier in the U.S. launched the mid-range Lumia 810 at $149.99 on
contract, merely days after both AT&T and Verizon unveiled
their Windows Phone 8 lineup ahead of the holiday
season. Sprint remains the only national carrier not to
announce a Lumia yet, but the carrier confirmed recently that it
has plans for the new Windows Phone 8 platform in 2013. Nokia
had AT&T and T-Mobile for its debut Lumia launch as well
earlier this year but the fact that Verizon is also on
board now, together with Sprint's pledged support for the
platform, means that Nokia will finally have a big enough
presence in the U.S. market to make it count. (see
Nokia Awaits Turnaround As Lumia Now Available At
Three U.S. National Carriers
)
The U.S. smartphone market is extremely crucial for handset
makers since success here generally translates into positive
consumer sentiment in other markets. It is therefore important that
Nokia figures out the U.S. market, where it has historically lagged
rivals. AT&T, which is backing the Lumia to the hilt and is the
only carrier to have the high-end Lumia 9xx, could use its
past iPhone experience to prove an able ally in this quest to
create a third mobile ecosystem. However, considering that the
Windows Phone has little brand awareness currently, Nokia will need
all the carrier support it can garner. Product-wise, the Lumia
looks a strong competitor to other popular smartphones and giving
carriers exclusive access to different custom-built Lumias could
help Nokia win more carrier backing, which, together with
Microsoft's Windows push in the coming months, will be instrumental
in putting more Lumias in people's hands.
Apple
In line with Apple's plans to make this year's iPhone
launch its fastest roll-out ever, Chinese carriers are hopeful of
launching the iPhone 5 in the country before the
year-end. China Telecom Chairman Wang Xiaochu, in a
brief interview with the Wall Street Journal last Friday, said
that the company plans to launch the device by early December or
sooner. While China Unicom sounded less certain about the
launch date, it has already received initial regulatory
approval to officially launch the iPhone 5 in China. (see
iPhone 5 Launch In China Could Boost Apple's
Holiday Quarter Results
) A December launch of the iPhone 5 in China may not be confirmed
news yet, but going by the three month time-frame in which Apple
had launched the 4S earlier this year, it does seem very
likely.
It is only a matter of time before the iPhone 5 is available on
both China Unicom and China Telecom, but a deal with the much
larger China Mobile remains elusive until Apple can work
out a deal with the carrier. How soon that will happen is open
to speculation considering the Chinese government's possible
opposition to the huge iPhone subsidies. (see
Apple Faces China Mobile-Sized Stumbling Block
Limiting China Upside Potential
) But knowing that the carrier's 3G growth has been
hurting due to the unavailability of the iPhone, such a deal should
not be too far along. This deal is also very important for Apple as
it can instantly double the iPhone's current addressable
market in China and act as the next big boost to its stock given
that the iPhone accounts for around 55% of the company's stock
value currently.
RIM
In what will be its first public move to revive its flagging
fortunes, RIM announced earlier this week that it will
unveil the new BlackBerry 10 platform at a media event January 30.
RIM will hold the event simultaneously in multiple countries around
the world and use the opportunity to officially announce the first
two BB10 smartphones. This comes on the back of the CEO, Thorsten
Heins, confirming in a press release late last month that the BB10
devices are being lab-certified by more than 50 carriers worldwide.
With RIM finally seeing some good news flow in the last few
weeks, its shares have shot up by almost 15% this month as
confidence returned that the management will be able to deliver on
its deadline this time after having missed it twice already in the
past year.
However, the Q1 2013 launch implies that competitors such
as Apple and Samsung will continue to munch on
RIM's market share until then and even beyond as RIM tries to
generate positive market sentiment around the new devices. To
add to RIM's woes, competition in the smartphone market is only
increasing with Microsoft making a reinvigorated mobile
play with its combined Windows 8/Windows Phone 8 push this holiday
season. However, we still see more value in the stock coming
from its huge 80 million subscriber base and the unique value
propositions RIM can make in push email and security. (see RIM On
Its Way To $12 As BB10 Nears Launch On January 30)
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