Weekly ETF Fund Flows: TLT’s Not Dead Yet

By IndexUniverse April 13, 2012, 11:00:00 AM EDT

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSEArca:TLT) was the most popular ETF in the past week, a clear sign investors are wagering that last Friday's disappointing March jobs report might end up pulling the Federal Reserve back into the bond market again to come to the economy's rescue.

Investors plowed $405.5 million into TLT in the five trading days ended yesterday. Those flows pretty much confirm a shift in sentiment since the end of March. Indeed, TLT was among the more heavily shorted ETFs last month. The number of TLT shares being shorted shot up by 28 percent in March, when markets were warming to the idea that rising stocks throughout the first quarter might be signaling the beginning of a new sustainable cycle of economic growth. A week in financial markets can seem like a long time.

After the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the U.S. economy created just 120,000 jobs last month, investors began thinking the Fed might restart some version of its bond-buying program called quantitative easing that's designed to keep rates low to encourage borrowing in the economy. While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke remains circumspect on the subject, some of his deputies have been making definite, if also less than explicit, gestures that the economy isn't out of the woods yet after the credit-led crash of 2008-2009.

Two other bond funds made it onto IndexUniverse's "Top 10 Creations" list-the SPDR Barclays Capital Short Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEArca:SCPB) and the iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSEArca:SHY), which pulled in $246.2 million and $168.7 million, respectively. Those creations in SCPB and SHY were probably more reflective of flight-to-safety buying on the short end of the bond market, as opposed to those in TLT, which reflect more of "inflation's under control" and "the Fed's going to keep long term yields pinned down" sentiments.

To that extent, some of the best-performing exchange-traded products in the past five trading days have been volatility related. Those securities are the quintessential tactical trading tools, rising sharply when equities are in full retreat, but generally performing horribly over the longer term.

The complexly named C-Tracks Exchange-Traded Notes on the Citi Volatility ETN (NYSEArca:CVOL) returned almost 9 percent in the past week, and the biggest VIX-related ETP on the market, the $1.57 billion iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEArca:VXX), rose 4.74 percent in the past few days.

Flows Out Of SPY, Gas Falls Out Of Bed

Not surprisingly, the least popular exchange-traded fund in the past five days was the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca:SPY), which bled $2.52 billion in assets between last Friday and yesterday.

SPY's so big, at more than $101 billion, that it can seem like it's the whole ETF equities universe.

Indeed, total outflows out of U.S.-focused equities totaled $5.55 billion.

Outflows from international equities totaled $545.8 million, with $550.4 million of that coming from the huge $38.55 billion iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSEArca:EEM).

Among the worst-performing exchange-traded products last week were those focused on natural gas, as the commodity continued its steady decline of the past few years. It fell below $2 per million cubic feet this week, amid increases in production that are overwhelming demand, particularly given the relatively mild U.S. winter that just ended.

The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Natural Gas Total Return ETN (NYSEArca:GAZ) fell more than 11 percent in the past week, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca:UNG), an ETF, lost about 7 percent.

Top 10 Creations (All ETFs)

Ticker Name Net Flows ($,mm) AUM ($, mm) AUM % Change
TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond 405.55 3,075.04 15.19%
IWM iShares Russell 2000 272.99 15,355.08 1.81%
TNA Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x 258.86 1,009.71 34.48%
SCPB SPDR Barclays Capital Short Term Corporate Bond 246.16 902.88 37.48%
SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond 168.74 10,363.09 1.66%
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 126.24 3,555.37 3.68%
DEM WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income 106.44 3,703.51 2.96%
VNQ Vanguard REIT 98.17 11,566.12 0.86%
XLE Energy Select SPDR 98.01 7,279.45 1.36%
IYR iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate 96.46 3,714.14 2.67%


Top 10 Redemptions (All ETFs)

Ticker Name Net Flows ($,mm) AUM ($, mm) AUM % Change
SPY SPDR S&P 500 -2,516.06 101,190.06 -2.43%
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust -584.42 11,081.57 -5.01%
QQQ PowerShares QQQ -555.65 34,930.56 -1.57%
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets -550.37 38,550.69 -1.41%
JNK SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond -361.31 11,435.47 -3.06%
OEF iShares S&P 100 -351.62 3,288.48 -9.66%
IWF iShares Russell 1000 Growth -296.02 16,240.81 -1.79%
XLP Consumer Staples Select SPDR -280.99 5,100.33 -5.22%
XLI Industrial Select SPDR -221.70 3,007.05 -6.87%
SPLV PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility -193.08 1,455.30 -11.71%


ETF Weekly Daily Flows By Asset Class

Net Flows ($, mm) AUM ($, mm) % of AUM
U.S. Equity -5,421.82 539,529.13 -1.00%
International Equity -545.83 286,865.35 -0.19%
U.S. Fixed Income 576.11 194,065.04 0.30%
International Fixed Income 197.20 15,216.33 1.30%
Commodities -266.79 113,940.08 -0.23%
Currency -13.86 3,287.66 -0.42%
Leveraged 401.90 13,866.84 2.90%
Inverse -272.86 20,057.50 -1.36%
Asset Allocation 3.49 1,086.79 0.32%
Alternatives -208.26 3,987.97 -5.22%
Total: -5,550.72 1,191,902.67 -0.47%


Top 10 Volume Surprises, Funds 'gt;$50 mm AUM

Ticker Name Average Volume
(30 Day)
1 Week Average
Volume
% of Average
CSM ProShares Credit Suisse 130/30 8,546 137,268 321.23%
PEJ PowerShares Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment Portfolio 26,998 337,398 249.95%
EMLC Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond 306,100 3,815,701 249.31%
VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 19,417 241,616 248.87%
EWP iShares MSCI Spain 194,282 2,278,309 234.54%
EPU iShares MSCI All Peru Capped 226,764 2,581,801 227.71%
OEF iShares S&P 100 813,838 9,172,575 225.42%
CVY Guggenheim Multi-Asset Income 319,424 3,599,941 225.40%
EWO iShares MSCI Austria Investable Market 122,891 1,375,047 223.78%
SPLV PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility 1,004,558 10,885,010 216.71%


Top 10 Weekly Performers, Excluding Leverage/Inverse Funds and 'lt;1,000 Shares Traded

Ticker Name Weekly Performance Weekly Volume AUM ($, mm)
GRN iPath Global Carbon ETN 17.24% 3,576 1.26
CVOL C-Tracks Exchange-Traded Notes on the Citi Volatility 8.90% 58,116 8.81
DPU PowerShares DB Commodity Long ETN 8.62% 4,740 6.53
VNM Market Vectors Vietnam 7.68% 1,664,955 326.11
GREK Global X FTSE Greece 20 6.24% 21,281 3.05
PEK Market Vectors China 5.97% 5,622 16.55
VXZ iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN 4.87% 3,717,829 268.79
VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN 4.74% 220,391,271 1,565.46
VIIX VelocityShares VIX Short Term ETN 4.49% 800,378 25.07
VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term 4.43% 1,880,597 132.03
Bottom 10 Weekly Performers, Excluding Leverage/Inverse Funds and 'lt;1,000 Shares Traded
Ticker Name Weekly Performance Weekly Volume AUM ($, mm)
GAZ iPath Dow Jones-UBS Natural Gas Total Return ETN -11.35% 1,570,956 29.30
TSXV Global X S&P/TSX Venture 30 Canada -7.29% 2,441 2.62
UNG United States Natural Gas -7.04% 35,452,066 711.71
LGEM EGShares Basic Materials GEMS -6.95% 1,050 2.33
CUPM iPath Pure Beta Copper ETN -6.33% 4,800 2.54
UBM ETRACS CMCI Industrial Metals Total Return ETN -5.33% 13,505 5.56
UNL United States 12 Month Natural Gas -5.26% 250,067 27.34
EMT EGShares Emerging Markets Metals & Mining -5.09% 9,582 14.00
JPP SPDR Russell/Nomura PRIME Japan -4.86% 5,163 15.02
SMIN iShares MSCI India Small Cap -4.86% 3,200 4.95

Disclaimer:All data as of 6 a.m. Eastern time the date the article is published. Data is believed to be accurate; however, transient market data is often subject to subsequent revision and correction by the exchanges.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, ETFs

Referenced Stocks: EEM, GAZ, SHY, TLT, VXX



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