Weekly Economic Overview (September 3 - 6, 2013).


Last week news of US threat of attack on Syria resulted in a surge oil prices and in turn saw bond prices increase, with equity markets globally seeing a sharp correction.

For the week, DOW fell 1.3%, S&P 500 slipped 1.8%, and NASDAQ fell 1.9%.

Gold (NYSE:GLD) and Silver (NYSE:SLV) prices continued to see volatile movements as geo-political tension resulted in investors seeking defensive assets.

While market anxiety has eased due to lack of international coalition for US in a potential military action in Syria and after President Obama opted to seek congressional authorization, investor's fears still linger since Obama looks adamant on taking punitive action.

The market is bracing for a wave of economic reports this week which would keep investors on edge. Most important data would be the August jobs report, which might prove decisive in determining whether the Federal Reserve will dial back its bond purchases in mid-September. News flow on Syria is also likely to dictate price action in US stock markets.

Following are Sentiment charts for S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), DOW Jones, and NASDAQ (NASDAQ:QQQ).

Following is an economic overview for the week September 02 - September 06, 2013.

(All times EST)

Tuesday, September 03

04:30 — GB Construction PMI:

Britain's construction PMI increased to 57 in July 2013, sharply above expectations of 51.6, indicating that the construction sector is growing at a faster rate. Consensus estimates for August call in for a reading of 58.4. A reading above the foretasted number may positively affect the British Pound.

10:00 — US ISM Manufacturing PMI:

In July, the index increased sharply to 55.4%, surpassing consensus estimates of 52.1%. A further increase in manufacturing PMI for August may positively affect the US dollar and crude oil prices.

Wednesday, September 04

08:30 — Canadian Trade Balance:

In June 2013, exports rose by 1.4% and imports increased by 0.6%. As a result, trade deficit narrowed from $781 million in May to $469 million in June. A further decline in trade deficit in July may positively affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be linked with commodities prices.

08:30 — US Trade Balance:

Monthly update will show developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the US for July 2013. In June 2013 trade deficit contracted to $34.2 billion.

10:30 — US Crude Oil Inventories:

EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the US crude oil for the week ending on August 31, 2013.

Thursday, September 05

BOJ Press Conference (tentative):

BOJ will decide on any changes to the bank's current asset purchase program.

07:00 — BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan:

Bank of England will decide on its basic rate for September 2013. The Monetary Policy Committee will also state of any new shifts to its asset purchase pogrom. As of August, BOE kept its rate flat at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at 375 billion.

08:15 — ADP Non Farm Employment Change:

ADP will release its estimate for US non-farm payroll changes for August 2013.

08:30 — ECB Press Conference:

ECB will announce of any changes to its cash rate for September. In the previous meeting ECB left its rate at 0.50%. The upcoming German elections are likely to keep ECB's policy unchanged in the near future.

08:30 — US Unemployment Claims:

Weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 30. Last week jobless claims decreased by 6K to reach 331K. This upcoming weekly update may affect the US dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets.

10:00 — US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI:

Monthly report will refer to shifts in the non-manufacturing sector for August 2013. In July, this index rose to 56% — indicating that the non-manufacturing is expanding at a fast rate.

10:00 — US Factory Orders:

This report will refer to changes in US factory orders of manufactured durable goods during August. In July 2013, factory orders increased by 1.5% (m/m). This upcoming report will offer some insight regarding developments in the US economy.

Friday, September 06

04:30 — GB Manufacturing Production:

This update will show annual rate of Britain's manufacturing production as of July 2013. In June 2013 the index increased by 1.9% (m/m).

08:30 — US Non Farm Payroll:

In July 2013, non-farm payroll employment increased by 162K, lower than expectations. If in the upcoming report employment increases by over 150K (in additional jobs), precious metals may continue their slide while the US dollar may pet positively affected.

08:30 — Canada Unemployment:

In July 2013, unemployment remained unchanged at 7.2% while the number of employed fell by 39.4K. The forthcoming report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities prices.


This commentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. Market IQ expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ, Inc.

This article appears in: Investing , Economy , Commodities , ETFs

Referenced Stocks: GLD , QQQ , SLV , SPY

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