Weekly Economic Outlook (June 10 - June 14, 2013)


Markets have been volatile over the past couple of weeks after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the US central bank might pull back on its asset purchases if economic data, especially hiring, improved significantly.

US stock indices advanced last week, as monthly employment report suggested economic growth is tepid enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain its bond-buying program.

US added 175K jobs in May vs. expectations of 165K. The stock market loved the employment number and surged higher following the employment report that indicated the economy was expanding modestly, but not enough to convince the Federal Reserve to pare back its bond-buying program.

For the week, DOW gained 0.9%, S&P 500 added 0.8%, and NASDAQ rose 0.4%.

In the upcoming week several reports, decisions, and events may affect the financial markets.

Following are Sentiment charts for S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), DOW Jones, and NASDAQ (NASDAQ:QQQ).

Following is an economic overview for the week June 10 - June 14, 2013.

(All times EST)

Tuesday, June 11

Bank of Japan Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (tentative):

Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy for June. Over the past several days Japanese Yen has rallied against the US dollar. If BOJ introduces additional measures in order to increase inflation and induce growth in the Japanese economy, Yen is expected to depreciate against leading currencies.

04:30 — Great Britain Manufacturing Production:

This report will present annual rate of Britain’s manufacturing production for April. In March the index increased by 1.1% (month over month).

Wednesday, June 12

04:30 — Great Britain Claimant Count Change:

This update will show changes in the number of unemployed in Britain. As of last month’s report unemployment inched down to 7.8%.

10:30 — US Crude Oil Inventories:

EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on US crude oil inventories for the week ending June 7. In the previous report inventories declined by 1.17 million barrels to reach 1,811.1 million barrels.

14:00 — US Federal Budget Balance:

This report will indicate growth in government debt and thus may affect the US dollar. In the previous report federal deficit fell by $112 billion.

Thursday, June 13

08:30 — US Retail Sales Report:

This report will show monthly changes in retail sales and food services for May. In April, retail sales inched up by 0.1% where as gasoline stations sales declined by 4.7%. This upcoming report could signal shifts in US’s gasoline demand and thus may affect oil prices.

08:30 — US Unemployment Claims:

Weekly update will refer to changes in initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 7. In the pervious report jobless claims fell by 11k to reach 346k. This forthcoming weekly report may affect the US dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets.

10:00 — Japan's monetary policy meeting:

Following Japan's monetary policy meeting, minutes of this meeting will come out. This news item could offer some insight behind future moves of Bank of Japan.


Friday, June 14

08:30 — Canada Manufacturing Sales (April 2013):

This report will pertain to manufacturing sales in Canada for April. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices. In March, manufacturing sales slipped by 0.3%.

08:30 — US Producer Price Index (PPI):

This report will present developments in PPI for May. In April this index fell by 0.7%.


This commentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. Market IQ expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

This article appears in: Investing , Economy , International , US Markets

Referenced Stocks: QQQ , SPY

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