??????This morning's surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report runs
counter to all recent economic data. The numbers seem
unbelievable as they are out of line with all data that we have
seen lately. Perhaps we shouldn't pay much attention to this
report as it will most likely get revised away in the coming
The bond market's reaction of pushing yields lower following
the jobs release appears over-done as the Fed is unlikely to
change its Taper plans on the basis of one-month data. This
report aside, all other data is consistently pointing towards
positive momentum in the U.S. economy. Wednesday's
) report, Thursday's Jobless Claims and lay-offs readings and the
employment components of the two ISM surveys were all foretelling
what we found in today's jobs report.
The U.S. economy grew at a robust +4.1% growth pace in the
third quarter and initial estimates for Q4 GDP growth were no
better than +1%. But those estimates started going up following a
steady run of better-than-expected economic readings, reflecting
momentum in consumer and business spending and less drag from
trade and inventory accumulation.
We wouldn't know the Q4 GDP figures for another few weeks, but
current estimates are for growth in the +3%. If Q4 growth does
come in that vicinity, the economy's growth pace will have
roughly doubled in the second half of 2013 from the first half's
Many in the market, the Fed included, view this to be the
'real' underlying trend in the economy and would likely discount
today's jobs reading. That said, the unusually weak jobs report
does add an element of uncertainty to the economic landscape.
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.