The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing
intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any
prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their
direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
Crude oil's break lower Wednesday held a retest of its prior low,
but that won't be bullish if it were to extend down without delay.
Its immediate rejection would suggest a much bigger bottom had
formed than was being considered.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to
efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid
stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live
intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at
Dec Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Follow-through by the current Symmetrical Triangle pattern extended
down to nearly test the 80.45 support before reversing up sharply
to test 80.80 resistance. Back above 80.85 would signal the drop
had ended, and that momentum was reversing up to launch a new rally
Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Tuesday's false breakout above the recently formed Ascending
Triangle gapped up through 1.3580 but stopped short of touching
1.3635 before reversing back down under 1.3580. Closing back under
1.3520 would signal a new downleg underway.
Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Attacking the recent 1258.00 highs overnight was already reversing
down into Wednesday's open, which extended down intraday into
negative territory to probe 1240.00-1245.50 as support went down to
1237.00. Two consecutive closes beyond the range are required to
indicate trending. Managing to fill the gap back to 1228.10 without
closing under 1230.50 before confirming a breakout would help to
form a bottom.
Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Overnight strength wasn't very strong, and it reversed Wednesday to
retest Monday's 19.65 gap down. There is no unfinished business
below, but bottoming depends more on avoiding two consecutive lower
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
[Rolling coverage forward to Mar] Tuesday's test of 132-30 (132-14
basis Dec) reacted down temporarily Wednesday under 132-22 (132-06
basis Dec) to signal momentum reversing down. The drop extended
down to 132-06 but recovered 132-12 (131-28 basis Dec), whose break
through the close would still target at least 131-16 (131-00 basis
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Having failed Tuesday to trigger the buy signal above 94.60, the
pattern was vulnerable to Wednesday's gap down extending to fresh
lows intraday at 92.21, which is under the prior downleg's 93.25
target. The session did only range around the prior downleg's 92.87
low, potentially forming an island, which would be bullish if
rejected by gapping up back above 93.70.
Oct Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
The 3.88 resistance and its overnight tests were probed by fresh
recovery highs Wednesday up to 3.91, but still being tested into
the afternoon. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the
rally's momentum remains intact for its next higher objective at
4.25. Otherwise, closing under 3.82 would now signal the current
upleg was at least being corrected.