Imagine having the opportunity to invest into companies that are
"guaranteed" by one of the world's wealthiest men --Warren Buffett
. Most investors would jump at the chance to know they are on the
same side as successful investors like him.
Does this seem like pie-in-the-sky thinking? Well, it's not.
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Buffett has just issued a personalguarantee on the controversial
bank sector.
In mid-January, the Oracle of OmahaWall Street , personally
guaranteeing the safety of the U.S. banking segment.
"The bankswill not get this country in trouble, I guarantee it,"
he said.
"The capital ratios are huge, the excesses on theasset side have
been largely cleared out... we own bankshares and I personally
ownstock in banks... I do not see problems in these
things."
Clearly, Buffett's commitment to the banking sector goes beyond
just his words. More than 37% of his $75 billion-plus portfolio is
dedicated to this sector, according to our friends at WFC),
M&T Bank (
MTB
)
and
U.S. Bancorp (
USB
)
.
Here's a closer look at twostocks the billionaire investor has
large stakes in.
1. M&T Bank
After dumping nearly 1.5 million shares of this bank in early 2010,
Buffett is back on the "buy" side, with a purchase of more than
18,000 shares during the third quarter of 2011. There has been no
activity since then, yet Buffett is sitting on nearly 5.5 million
shares, representing a little more than 4% ofshares outstanding ,
valued at nearly half a billion dollars.
The bank has $78 billion in assets and is among the top-20
largest commercial bank-holding companies in the United States.
During the past five years, the bank has increasedrevenue at a rate
of 4.4%,free cash flow at 18.6% andbook value at 6%
annually.
The metrics Buffettbases his decision on are all showing signs
of improvement. The tier 1 common ratio, which measures a bank's
financial strength, is at 7.5%, up from 6.9% a year earlier.
The recent technical picture shows that the stock has been
uptrending since September 2012, but has hit heavy resistance at
$104. Investors should wait until the $104 level is broken on a
daily close to enter with a 12-month target of $110.
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2. Wells Fargo
Buffett loves this bank, first purchasing it in 1989. Beginning in
the first quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2012, he
purchased more than 12 million shares at a price of up to $34.
Buffett now owns more than 422 million shares, or a little more
than 8% of the company, valued at more than $14 billion.
Improvements have been taking place across the board during the
past half decade. Revenue has been growing at a nearly 10% annual
rate to $21.9 billion, whileEBITDA has been increasing by 4%
annually to 36.3%. Book value also ramped up more than 14% during
the same time frame to $27.47 per share.
Deposits increased a little more than 7% to almost $929 million
from a year ago. The tier 1 common ratio expanded to 10.1% from
9.5% a year earlier, while total risk to assets went from 11.2% to
10.8% year-over-year. Meanwhile,nonperforming assets dropped from
$25.3 billion to $24.5 billion during the third quarter of
2012.
Looking at the short-term technical picture, the price has
bounced from the mid-November lows and is now pushing against
resistance in the $35 range. Waiting for a daily breakout close
above $36 with a 12-month target of $40 makes sense with this
Buffett favorite.
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Risks to Consider:
The U.S. banking sector is not out of the woods yet. The
massivemortgage default overhang and ultra-low interest rates
spells a difficult situation for the sector. Buffett guaranteeing
the bank sector is a positive move, but it's no promise investors
will makemoney buying into his picks. In thehedge fund business,
wecall Buffett's words, "talking his book," meaning he is promoting
his own holdings.
Action to Take -->
Having said that, banks have made substantial improvements in the
past several years. However, I'm still not ready to buy either of
these banks right now, even after Buffett's words. But investors
who like to track and follow the Oracle of Omaha's footsteps should
wait for the breakout close above $104 for M&T Bank and above
$36 for Wellls Fargo. Buffett singing the praises of the entire
banking sector can only help these stocks.