Warning: These Stocks Are In The Danger Zone

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When it comes to analyzing balance sheets, there are retailers, and there is everyone else. 

Retail-based businesses need to worry aboutinventory levels,sales markdowns,cash balances and many otherbalance sheet items throughout theyear , especially as many are profitable only during the holidays.

Edward Altman developed the "Z-Score " methodology in 1968.

That's why Edward Altman, professor of New York University's Stern School of Business, devised a broad measure of a retailer's financial health. Ever since he developed his "Z-Score" methodology in 1968, investors have been using his gauge to see how their own retailinvestments are stacking up.

Red , Yellow And Green
Altman's Z-Score gives one simple number that tells you how a retailer is faring. Any reading above 3.0 implies good health interms of balance sheet strength andprofit results. Indeed, the vast majority of retailers get the thumbs-up using the Z-Score.

But a reading of 3.0 and below should be cause for concern. The lower the number, the greater the risk that this retailer won't be around in a few years. Indeed, retailers such as Circuit City, Bombay, Ames and others showed declining Z-Scores before going belly-up.

Let's start with a look at retailers with mediocre Z-Scores, in the 2.5 to 3.0 range.

These companies are in the process of either boosting or weakening their Z-Scores, so it's wise to see how this number trends over time. For example, electronics retailer Conns (Nasdaq: CONN) was in weak shape a few years ago but has recently posted improving sales and profit trends. If those trends continue, then its Z-Scorewill eventually move into safer territory. 

Before looking at companies with truly concerning Z-Scores, let's look at how this number is determined. Altman takes a wide variety of variables from the balance sheet,income statement andcash flow statement , creates a set of ratios for various metrics, and then assigns weights to those ratios. 

Here's the formula:

Z-Score = 1.2A + 1.4B + 3.3C + 0.6D + 1.0E

A = Working Capital/Total Assets

B = Retained Earnings/Total Assets

C =Earnings Before Interest & Tax/Total Assets

D =Market Value of Equity/Total Liabilities

E = Sales/Total Assets

I ran these variables through a screening tool (provided by Thomson Reuters), eliminating any retailer with a Z-Score of 4.0 or higher. You can see how all retailers fared.

Now, let's take a look at the retailers that may soon hit awave of financial distress.

Here again, it's wise to dig into the numbers and confirm the trend as some retailers' financial pictures are changing quickly. For example, supermarket chain Supervalu ( SVU ) has raised much-needed cash through asset sales and is out of intensive care -- for now. On the other hand, women's apparel retailer Coldwater Creek (Nasdaq: CWTR) appears headed for further losses in the years ahead, which is bound to weaken its financial foundation even more.

Thoughshares of Sears Holdings are off more than 10% since a month ago, there is considerably moredownside to go.

A retailer showing deep warning signs: Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD) , which I profiled on our sister site ProfitableTrading.com.

Though shares are off more than 10% since I panned thestock a month ago, there is considerably more downside to go as cash flies out the door in comingquarters .

It's also important for investors to track theturnaround efforts at J.C. Penney ( JCP ) . The struggling retailer is expected to keep losingmoney at a furious pace, which may eventually create deepeningliquidity concerns. Then again, if the company can stabilize and actually turn a profit (compared with a current projected loss of $1.25 a share), then this might shape up as a nice turnaround play.

Risks to Consider: As anupside risk, a strengthening U.S.economy will likely give a solid boost to retail sales, aiding many of these struggling retailers. 

Action to Take --> The ongoing shift toward e-commerce is likely to create further pressure on brick-and-mortar retailers. For example, Barnes & Noble ( BKS ) recently noted very weak sales trends, which could trigger a wave of further store closings, pushing this retailer even closer to the brink. A number of retailers will report monthlysame-store sales trends in the coming days, and if youspot any weak sales trends, be sure to calculate the firm's Z-Score to see if it might be headed for deeper distress.



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.


This article appears in: Investing , Investing Ideas , Stocks

Referenced Stocks: BKS , JCP , SVU

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