On Mar 15, 2013, we reiterated our long-term recommendation on
) at Neutral. We are encouraged with the decent fourth quarter
result at Ventas as well as the dividend hike announcement. We
expect the company's significantly diversified portfolio,
strategic move in Atria and other opportunistic acquisitions to
provide significant upside potential to the stock going forward.
Yet, a large portion of its revenue originates from a few
tenants, which exposes it to concentration risk and undermines
its growth potential to some extent.
Ventas has one of the largest and most diversified portfolios in
the healthcare sector with exposure to all types of facilities.
The product diversity of the company allows it to capitalize on
opportunities in different markets based on individual market
dynamics, and provides a hard-to-replicate business model with
sufficient competitive edge over its peers.
Also, the healthcare sector is relatively immune to the economic
problems faced by office, retail and apartment companies and
offers stability to the company amid the volatility in the
market. Consumers will continue to spend on healthcare while
cutting out discretionary purchases.
Its normalized FFO reached 99 cents per share in the fourth
quarter 2012, 2 cents ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate and
10 cents above the prior-year quarter figure. The results were
aided by the strategic acquisitions made in 2012 and in the prior
year, decent performance of its seniors housing communities and
rental escalation from its triple-net lease portfolio.
Moreover, Ventas has a strong balance sheet, which provides its
adequate financial flexibility to aim high-yielding acquisitions,
high ROI (return on investments) capital projects and steady
dividend payouts. Ventas increased its first-quarter 2013 cash
dividend by 8% to 67 cents per share.
However, a large portion of Ventas' revenue originates from a few
tenants, which exposes it to concentration risk. If one of the
company's larger tenants runs into financial difficulty, earnings
could be negatively affected.
Also, a considerable amount of Ventas' income is determined by
government reimbursement rates. If the government cuts
reimbursement rates through Medicare or Medicaid, revenue could
fall in the future and adversely affect its long-term growth
Following the release of the fourth-quarter and full-year 2012
results, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for full year 2013 has gone
up 0.5% to $4.06 per share with 5 estimates going north and 2
going south in the last 30 days.
Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for full year 2014 increased
1.2% to $4.28 per share as 2 estimates were revised upward while
none moved down. With the Zacks Consensus Estimates going up for
both full-year 2013 and 2014, the company now has a Zacks Rank #3
Other Stocks to Consider
REITs that are currently performing well include
MHI Hospitality Corp.
Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc.
), both carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), and
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.
) having a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs,
is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other
non-cash expenses to net income.
ALEXANDRIA REAL (ARE): Free Stock Analysis
MHI HOSPITALITY (MDH): Free Stock Analysis
RYMAN HOSPITLTY (RHP): Free Stock Analysis
VENTAS INC (VTR): Free Stock Analysis Report
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