US Non-Farm Payrolls Rise Deceptive?


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Although traders viewed the initial release of the drastic jump in today's Non-Farm Payroll ( NFP ) data with hefty optimism, do these numbers truly reflect what is happening in the American economy?

An article released by CNBC earlier today has hinted that the payrolls data published this afternoon was in fact a deceptive rise which did not mirror the real story. The article discussed the optimism of the overall figure, but weakness found among the internal data set.

Mainly, it noted that the labor participation rate remained unchanged; the "real" unemployment rate, which factors in underemployment and part-time workers desiring full-time work, actually rose to 15.9% since last month; the percentage of involuntary part-time workers remained unchanged; and, basically, that the more accurate household survey revealed a decline of 191,000 jobs in April as opposed to the NFP report of 244,000 new jobs being added.

The rise in the unemployment rate to 9.0% from last month's 8.8% seems to support the assessment by CNBC.

Several other articles have suggested the same, citing strong jobs data from the NFP, but weakness and high risk exposure which will likely drag on the US economy in the months ahead, leaving the Fed no choice but to hold rates at their current low.

This continued rate differential will hold the USD lower versus its primary currency counterparts throughout most of 2011. But today's sudden flight to safe havens brought on since yesterday's announcement from the ECB that euro zone rates would be held steady with no timeline for a second hike in 2011 has continued to boost the dollar in trading. Whether this rise will continue in to next week is yet to be seen.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

This article appears in: Investing , Forex and Currencies





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