U.S. ECONOMICS: RBC On Earlier Trade Numbers

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RBC notes incorporating September's data resulted in a larger real goods deficit in the third quarter relative to the Q2 level. It says this suggests that rather than net exports contributing 0.3 ppt to the economy's 2.8% growth rate as was in the advance estimate, the trade sector on balance provided no support to growth. The partial federal government shutdown and uncertainty created by the debt-ceiling debate in October are likely to take a toll on the fourth quarter's growth rate although surprising strength in the October manufacturing and service sector PMI data and the larger than expected rise in nonfarm payrolls in the month suggest that the hit will be relatively limited, it adds. "Against a backdrop of low inflation and a historically elevated unemployment rate, no change in Fed policy is likely in the near term."



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