RBC notes incorporating September's data resulted in a larger
real goods deficit in the third quarter relative to the Q2 level.
It says this suggests that rather than net exports contributing 0.3
ppt to the economy's 2.8% growth rate as was in the advance
estimate, the trade sector on balance provided no support to
growth. The partial federal government shutdown and uncertainty
created by the debt-ceiling debate in October are likely to take a
toll on the fourth quarter's growth rate although surprising
strength in the October manufacturing and service sector PMI data
and the larger than expected rise in nonfarm payrolls in the month
suggest that the hit will be relatively limited, it adds. "Against
a backdrop of low inflation and a historically elevated
unemployment rate, no change in Fed policy is likely in the near
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