June 22, 2012
This Nasdaq posting is my way to share my general market opinions and the articles many that I write for SeekingAlpha.com. I am not permitted by SA to copy these articles and post then with other financial blogs such as Nasdaq Community.
General Market: Where are We and Where are we Going?
The quick answer to this question is – DOWN!
For the last three weeks I have said that the Bears have taken control but there will be a few more days (plus / minus) of upside. This has and is happening as of this posting.
However, this past week was simple a “news driven” week. That means that all the good fundamental and technical work goes out the window for a few days. I said, a few days. We are not back in a bullish cycle.
With this current bounce rally, I suggest that you will soon have two opportunities to make wise investment decisions. The first is to sell many of your current long holdings. You are already hurt and more hurt is coming! Holding cash in your portfolio is not a sin and makes for wise investing! Second, you will have to be very selective but there are excellent shorting opportunities still at hand. I stress the word “selective.”
I do see another few days (plus) of this mini-rally.
That is about as accurate as you will find on the web!
My fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The world economies are in much more peril than is being reported by the media.
Therefore, I am currently bearish on the general market, the economy, and believe holding long positions for the foreseeable future is not wise investing.
My forecasted bearish cycle will end. When it does you will be presented with excellent opportunities for you to take bullish positions again. Unfortunately, that may be a long time in coming. Again, cash is a safe harbor in a storm. We are in a ‘storm.’
If that is not a clear bearish opinion and warning, you need (mucho) help! Find a seasoned financial analyst / asset manager to provide direction for your portfolio. I do not believe you can compete with the professionals any longer. This is a new and cut throat stock market that will gladly eat you alive.
The Professors - Report Card on: Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)
Fundamental - weighting (40%)
Technical - weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion - weighting (25%)
Report Card – Grade & Direction: ( 0 - 100 / A - F ) - - Ascending – Status Quo - Descending
79 / C - - Ascending
My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.
My article "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).
Do not buy or short Comcast Corp. without talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email.
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Smile, have fun Investing Wisely,
Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.