We expect apparel store operator
) to beat expectations when it reports third quarter 2013 results
on November 30.
The company has a strong history of surprises, having
surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a solid double-digit
percentage rate in each of the four preceding quarters.
The trailing four-quarter average surprise was 40.4%, which
was greatly helped by the 85.2% surprise in the last-reported
quarter. This was possible because Genesco did a good job of
controlling expenses. Strong same-store sales in the Journeys and
Schuh segments also helped. The "back to school" season was
delayed however, which should be positive for the October
Estimate revisions have been minimal in the last 30 days,
although we do see some tweaking. As a result, the Zacks
Consensus Estimate for the October quarter inched up a penny to
34 cents. There were no changes in the fiscal 2013 and 2014
We view positively the lack of downward movement in estimates,
particularly when reading with the Zacks ESP (Expected Surprise
Prediction), which is .75% for the October quarter. A positive
ESP generally indicates that the Zacks Consensus Estimate is
conservative and there is a good chance of an earnings beat.
Additionally, most of its peers, such as
Abercrombie & Fitch
American Eagle Outfitters
), recently reported strong numbers, beating the Zacks Consensus
Estimate by 16.7%, 47.5% and 5.1%, respectively.
), another apparel store operator has a Zacks ESP of 0.0%,
indicating that it is likely to report in line with
Genesco and Finish Line currently have a Zacks Rank of #3
(short-term Neutral rating), compared with Abercrombie &
Fitch and American Eagle Outfitters, which have a Zacks Rank of
#2 (Buy) and Foot Locker, which has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong
AMER EAGLE OUTF (AEO): Free Stock Analysis
ABERCROMBIE (ANF): Free Stock Analysis Report
FINISH LINE-CLA (FINL): Free Stock Analysis
FOOT LOCKER INC (FL): Free Stock Analysis
GENESCO INC (GCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
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