We expect natural gas producer
Ultra Petroleum Corp.
) to beat expectations when the company reports its
fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results tomorrow on Friday, Feb
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that Ultra Petroleum is likely to beat
earnings because it has the right combination of two key
Positive Zacks ESP:
Expected Surprise Prediction or ESP (Read:
Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method
), which represents the difference between the Most Accurate
estimate of 54 cents and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50
cents, stands at +8.00%. This is a meaningful and leading
indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise for shares.
Zacks Rank #3 (Hold):
The stocks with Zacks Ranks of #1, #2 and #3 have a significantly
higher chance of beating the earnings. The Sell-rated stocks (#4
and #5) should never be considered while going into an earnings
The combination of Ultra Petroleum's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and
+8.00% ESP makes us very confident in looking for a positive
earnings beat on Feb 15, 2013.
What is Driving the Better than Expected
Ultra Petroleum controls substantial acreage in and around the
prolific Jonah natural gas field and the Pinedale Anticline area
in the Green River Basin. Both these areas are endowed with rich
natural gas reserves, which have remained largely untapped to
Ultra Petroleum's performance over the last few years
highlights its attractive growth prospects. During the last 5
years, the company has increased its production at a compounded
annual growth rate of approximately 21%.
The positive trend is seen in the trailing four-quarter
average surprise of 34.24%. The company's third-quarter 2012
surprise was 25.49% owing to better margin and a drop in
production taxes and gathering fees.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other firms you may want to consider on the
basis of our model, which shows that they have the right
combination of elements to post an earnings beat this
Atlas Energy LP
), earnings ESP of +520.00% and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Northern Tier Energy LP
), earnings ESP of +6.57% and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Western Refining Inc.
), earnings ESP of +7.09% and Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
ATLAS ENERGY LP (ATLS): Free Stock Analysis
NORTHERN TIER (NTI): Free Stock Analysis
ULTRA PETRO CP (UPL): Free Stock Analysis
WESTERN REFING (WNR): Free Stock Analysis
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