"If you grow it, biofuel will come," isn't much of a slogan. So
let me be blunt: Biofuel is important because we need it.
My current prediction: Oil prices will hold fast and end 2011 above
$100, and this will keep biofuel an important ongoing business and
Whether the economic recovery is slower than expected or OPEC
raises its production, ultimately it's a moot point -- gasoline is
finite and we now have affordable technology to "create" gasoline.
And while oil supplies won't dry up today, the next day or for a
generation, it's not going to get any cheaper to find oil, refine
it and distribute the finished product.
Leaner government means higher fuel prices
And while it might seem odd, I think a coming budget fight will
help boost oil prices -- and by extension, gasoline. Federal
spending and the
will be the single most important issue going into the campaign
The less the federal government spends, the better. This is not
politics, this is just business.
The answer from a practical, economic and even political standpoint
is a greatly streamlined budget with far more disciplined spending.
I think this will invigorate the
, which will in turn push up the price of gasoline.
But don't think for a moment that thousands of scientists,
engineers, and companies will sit idly by as they watch a market
grow for a gasoline alternative.
Biofuel -- renewable because it comes from plants -- is an obvious
solution, but not an easy one. Corn-based ethanol, which makes up
10% or so of the gasoline in your tank, hasn't been a resounding
success, and some would argue it's becoming a boondoggle.
At this point, the United States can't meet the 15% maximum ethanol
blend with corn-based ethanol alone and feed people for a
reasonable price at the same time.
But other forms of biofuel change the game entirely.
Cellulosic ethanol is a strategic alternative
Current federal law (and more and more states) calls for a dramatic
rise in sugar-based ethanol, which I refer to as cellulosic ethanol
because it comes from the sugar trapped in the cell walls of
plants. Other biofuel, including plant-based diesel, algae-based
fuel and even higher-tech cellulosics like isobutanol, are
chock-full of potential.
What matters here? The science, the process, scalability and, of
matter. A few technologies look to have mastered all these
elements, and these are the ones investors must keep an eye on.
The market recently welcomed two cutting-edge players,
, and the stage could well be set for more.
Gevo derives isobutanol from cellulose. Isobutanol is a replacement
for gasoline, with no special parts or engine modifications needed
-- something that ethanol is not. Solazyme has created a method to
make algae-based fuel on a huge scale quickly, efficiently, and
Action to Take -->
is the strong the recovery, the higher the price of oil, and the
more interested Wall Street will be in a piece of the biofuel pie.
And while the future will no doubt be volatile, I renew my
on this sector. Biofuel has as much potential as anything I've
You can tell I'm excited about the investment opportunity in
biofuels, but there are a number of game-changing ideas in the
market. From tiny power plants that can be buried in your lawn, to
revolutionary pain killers made from cobra venom, there are more
game-changing ideas I think could be "the next big thing." To get
briefed on these opportunities, and several others that I think
could return many times your money,
please watch this video
Disclosure: Andy Obermueller and/or StreetAuthority, LLC hold a
position in NASDAQ:GEVO, NASDAQ:SZYM.
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