Turkey: Don’t Wave the White Flag, Raise the Red Flag

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At Emerging Money we have written significantly on Turkey and discussed the challenges of their macro struggles.  In short, we have guided investors towards a view that Turkey is not broken but will be noisy on politics and that the investment time horizon will be over the next 12 months, not 12 weeks.

Image courtesy Komarov Andrey: http://www.photoxpress.com/search-stock-photos-photographer/Komarov+Andrey/880647 Today's news flow is a case in point: Tensions escalated today in Istanbul as recorded conversations between PM Erdogan and his son implicating fraud were posted on the internet.

The PM's spokesman has said the voices on the tapes were fake and that perps would be brought to justice, but can we really know where this is leading?

Erdogan's increasingly autocratic rule and intolerance of any opposition is wearing thin for locals and thus wearing thin for the market as there is a call for the government to resign.

With all that has transpired in Ukraine, it's not a surprise to see Turkey ( TRY , quote ) trade off more than 3.3% today.

Watch the currency which is off -1.5% over two days after being "rock steady" for the previous few weeks.

In my view, a move to 2.23 is a move to 2.30.

March 30 elections will mean there is fear and noise and potentially a volatile political transition.

The elections later in the year should give a green light to Turkey's superior corporate stories.

Turkish banks are some of the best run institutions in the world and trade at valuations that will reward longer term commitment, or pick your spots after the politics calm down. sg2014022543257



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , International , Stocks

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