Trefis Week in Review – Apple & LinkedIn Webinars Next Week

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The Week in Review

Given the positive response from our Pandora ( P ) webinar earlier this week, we have scheduled two more webinars next week for Apple ( AAPL ) and LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD). Among readers' favorites from the week, we also looked at upside and downside cases for RIM (NASDAQ:RIMM) as its shares continue to fall further. We assess Sirius XM's (NASDAQ:SIRI) dependence on the auto industry, and we launch coverage on Boeing ( BA ). We also looked at why AMD ( AMD ) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares continue to slide and what might add support to these stocks.

Insights from the Week

Technology Media & Telecom

Carriers are looking to deploy their own CDNs and Akamai does not want to be left out of the network and would rather license its CDN technology to these carriers that will provide business as well as help telcos build out the capability more quickly …

  • Sirius XM Stock Outlook is Hitched to Auto Industry on June 24, 2011

Sirius's CEO has indicated that Sirius could put its free cash flow to use by buying shares or through cash dividends - though we don't think this could happen before 2012 …

  • 5 Reasons Why RIM Is Crumbling on June 24, 2011

RIM once was a great mobile phone company but it's behind the times and its core competitive advantages are under siege. Its attempts at a playbook are a move in the right direction but will not move the needle …

  • Portability & Cloud Services Lift SanDisk's Outlook on June 24, 2011

The demand for "high quality" media consumption on the move is likely to get a serious boost as a result of the iCloud and other competing services …

  • Upside & Downside Scenarios for AMD on June 24, 2011

AMD's margins have suffered significantly in the past as a result of increased manufacturing costs and price competition. However they started recovering in 2008 and have trended higher …

  • How Nokia Can Ring Up $9 on June 23, 2011

Although Nokia is bleeding market share rapidly as its profit margins head south, we still believe that the market could be over-reacting to Nokia's short-term woes …

  • Norton's Everywhere Initiative Could be Symantec's Mobile Money Maker on June 23, 2011

Capturing the mobile security opportunity will be important for Symantec as the company itself acknowledges that by 2013 handheld devices will be the most popular way to access the web …

  • Sprint LTE Announcement Could Move the Stock on June 23, 2011

The main hang up centers around concerns over LightSquared's signals interfering with other operators and defense GPS signals, which the company claims is an easy fix …

  • Time Warner Cable Acquires NewWave's Cable Systems on June 23, 2011

If we assume that Internet subscribers are a subset of pay-TV subscribers here, Time Warner Cable's acquisition cost stands at little over $3,700 per subscriber …

  • Adobe Guidance Supported by New Release & Staying Nimble in Japan on June 22, 2011

The company previously revised its revenue outlook lower in Q2 by $50 million due to the Japan disaster, which we discussed in our earnings preview. The actual impact was only $10 million …

  • What's Driving Nvidia's Stock Lower? on June 22, 2011

We think this move could be exaggerated due to recent market pessimism and some short-term thinking on how Nvidia's graphics business will hold up vs. AMD and Intel …

  • Is AMD's Slide a Buying Opportunity? on June 22, 2011

While AMD's high leverage could partially be the reason behind greater downfall of the stock, it also implies that stock has opportunity to recover over time and might present an attractive investment right now …

  • Sprint Rolls Out Unlimited Data Plan for 4G Tablet to Drive Adoption on June 21, 2011

By having customers subscribe to higher tiered plans and letting allowing them access to WiMAx, Sprint could is opening the door on more WiMax pricing plans in the future and will take advantage of customers' increasing data use …

  • IBM - the "True" #1 Global Enterprise Software Vendor on June 21, 2011

We believe that a higher than expected growth in middleware software sales, as a result of IBM's recent push in this segment, could result in a measurable upside to our $185 price estimate for IBM's stock …

  • RIM Still Blackberry Dependent Despite Playbook's Early Success on June 21, 2011

We expect RIM's SG&A and R&D expenses as % of gross profits to increase dramatically in 2011. We are optimistic that this ratio will decline in 2012 as cost cutting efforts gain traction and sales recover …

  • Adjusting RIM Estimates on Difficult Outlook on June 20, 2011

The results for Q1 were also well below the previous guidance provided by RIM, which is causing investor confidence in the stock to collapse …

  • 3 Key Trends for Pandora on June 20, 2011

Smartphone sales are expected to grow at a healthy pace going forward and will drive continued growth in Pandora's listener hours on mobile devices …

  • Akamai Facing New Challenges in Value-Added Services on June 20, 2011

Cotendo is reportedly raising additional capital with investors such as Juniper, and is emphasizing value-added services that could challenge Akamai's position in this market …

  • Adobe Earnings Preview: What We're Watching on June 20, 2011

Historically a new CS software version is released approximately every 18 to 24 months, and Adobe has seen high volume sales growth near its launch date …

  • How Google's Flight Search Could Impact Expedia on June 19, 2011

Google does not plan to offer bookings in the near future, but the addition of flight schedules to its search results could have a significant impact on online travel agencies such as Expedia …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Consumer, Retail, & Automotive

  • Home Depot's Wind Power Products Add to Renewables Line Up on June 24, 2011

Last year, Home Depot received a significant boost through Senate's energy measures, which allocated $5 billion in rebates for home owners who upgraded to energy-efficient insulation, windows and heating and cooling equipment …

  • What Could L'Oreal Gain from Bidding for Avon? on June 23, 2011

But where L'Oreal still misses out is from direct selling which Avon Products champions, which could make it an attractive acquisition target for L'Oreal …

  • Revlon Needs Debt Makeover as Bills Come Before Beauty on June 22, 2011

Investors' concerns regarding Revlon's debt levels underlies this stock volatility though its recent efforts to refinance some of its existing debt has helped to alleviate concerns …

  • How P&G Gains Market Share in Tough Times on June 22, 2011

While the cash-starved players have no choice but to squeeze R&D budgets, the bigger ones could continue investing in product innovation and delight the consumer with improved products …

  • Web Sales Could Lift Ann's Shares Higher on June 21, 2011

We currently forecast Ann Taylor e-commerce sales to be ~$105 million in 2011. However, better than expected growth in web sales at Ann Taylor- in line with Q1 results - would mean an upside to our estimate for Ann …

  • GameStop Coverage Launch: $38 Trefis Price Estimate on June 21, 2011

The company registered 62% growth in 2010 and 53% in Q1 of 2011 in its digital revenues. We expect GameStop to show double digit growth in its digital receipts going forward …

  • Best Buy Mobile and Online Sales Drive BestBuy's Q1 Revenues on June 21, 2011

BestBuy Mobile witnessed an impressive 25% growth in the quarter and same store sales were down 1.7%, both of which were better than what many analysts had expected …

  • P&G CEO Ad Spend Moving Online to Reach Emerging Markets on June 21, 2011

Robert McDonald highlighted that the advertising spend will continue to be around 10% of sales, which alleviates our concerns with regards to the operating margin being strained further to meet the demand for new product launches …

  • Gap CEO Announces Changes to Get Back on Track on June 21, 2011

This move comes from the fact that outlet stores provide higher return on capital and Banana stores provide higher margins of close to 17% to the company …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Financial Services

  • Gov't Ownership Overhang Weighing on AIG on June 24, 2011

The Treasury's ownership in the company has declined from 92% to 77%, and it still has around 1.5 billion shares available to sell over the next couple of years - or in other words - whenever it can …

  • Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt's Lackluster Outlook on June 23, 2011

However, if the current volatility in commodities and emerging markets persists, and is further compounded by factors such as the continuing sovereign debt problems in Europe, there can be a downside to our forecasts …

  • Citi Targets Expanding Operations in China & Russia on June 23, 2011

We expect this consolidation in Russia to help Citibank establish its business in an under served market where only about 25% of the 142 million Russians have a bank account of any sort …

  • Fewer Stiffs Using Capital One Plastic as Card Defaults Drop on June 23, 2011

In March 2010, the industry wide charge-off rate peaked at 10.9% but has declined ever since. The current charge-off rate is still higher than 3.82% that the industry enjoyed before the recession …

  • How Schwab Gains from Offering Free ETF Trading on June 22, 2011

ETFs have been a popular instrument among investors because they can be traded on exchanges like stocks, offer diversified exposure for lower fees. As a result, ETFs have grown in recent years to become almost a trillion-dollar market …

  • Barclays Sets Ambitious 2-Year Targets, Banking on Capital Markets Recovery on June 22, 2011

These targets have been described as ambitious by market analysts, with the company's largely Europe-centric operations taking a hit in recent quarters - and the situation in the region not expected to improve in the near future …

  • Upside & Downside Scenarios for AIG's Stock on June 21, 2011

As the company narrows its focus on core P&C insurance and life insurance businesses after selling many of its other businesses, its market share could increase to 13% by the end of our forecast period, leading to just about 20% upside …

  • Bank of America Reports Decline in Credit Card Defaults on June 20, 2011

Declining delinquencies indicate that the bank may report further decline in charge-off rates in coming months which could boost the credit card operating margin for the Bank …

  • Declines in Trading Forces Morgan Stanley to Cut Costs on June 20, 2011

An estimated 16% decline in Q2 trading revenues caused by a slowdown in fixed-income, currencies and commodities trading is forcing Morgan Stanley to resort to cost cutting to resize its business and maintain profit margins …

  • American Express Launches a New Prepaid Card on June 20, 2011

Credit card transactions in the US grew by slightly less than 4% to reach $1.96 trillion in 2010, whereas debit card transactions grew by almost 14% to cross $1.8 trillion over the same period …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Energy & Natural Resources

  • Rio's Chinese Contracts Reflect Lower Iron Ore Spot Prices on June 24, 2011

The prices for iron ore rallied in 2010 jumping close to 20%. This run fizzled out after the Chinese demand for the ore declined in February this year leading to just a 1% increase in the prices this year …

  • Why Barrick Gold is Pursuing Copper on June 24, 2011

Industrial demand for copper is the single most significant driver for its prices, outstripping supply by 300,000 tons to almost 1 million tons this year …

  • Suntech CEO: US and China Driving Solar Industry's Growth on June 23, 2011

In 2010, Suntech generated nearly 70% of its revenues from Europe, 15% in the US and slighly more than 5% in China underscoring the industry's reliance on European demand …

  • Chevron's Marketing & Transportation Units Add Little Zip to Stock on June 23, 2011

Although marketing & transportation operations generate significant revenues for Chevron, the value contribution is limited to around 4% of Chevron's stock by our analysis …

  • Duke Energy Increases Quarterly Dividend on June 23, 2011

This dividend represents an annual yield of about 5.3% based on the company's closing price of $18.80 per share on Tuesday …

  • SunPower Sets Record in Solar Panel Efficiency on June 22, 2011

We expect these enhanced features in the E20 solar panels to more than offset any price premiums on the product, providing a significant competitive advantage over its competitors …

  • Fundamental Drivers to Silver Wheaton's Rally on June 22, 2011

We saw a sharp mover higher in silver spot prices last week in part due to strong fundamental demand from major markets like India and China in addition to overall risk-off trade in global equity markets …

  • First Solar's US Sales Could Grow 5x in 5 years on June 22, 2011

With the growth in the solar sector worldwide largely driven by European countries in the past, near term incremental growth will come from the U.S. …

  • ConocoPhillips to Explore Offshore Bangladesh on June 22, 2011

The company is expected to invest about $111 million in its first round of exploration and may be able to conduct exploration in the remaining areas of the block depending on the solution of the dispute …

  • Alcoa Gains from Fuel Efficiency Focus at Paris Air Show on June 22, 2011

Alcoa is the largest provider to the aerospace industry in terms of market share with these operations generating almost $3 billion in revenues for the company …

  • Rio Tinto Buys Tata Steel's 26% Stake in Riversdale on June 21, 2011

The deal will give Rio Tinto full control over the coal miner and helps to secure coal assets for mining requirements in case of rising fuel prices …

  • Duke Energy CEO: Depending on Natural Gas is Risky for U.S. on June 21, 2011

He emphasizes the inherent risk that lies in reducing the fuel diversification of fuel types for U.S. energy consumption needs …

  • Iron-Ore Oversupply Could Impact Rio Tinto on June 20, 2011

The company recently said in a press statement that it's accelerating its iron ore expansion program in the Pilbara region of Western Australia with US$676 million funding …

  • First Solar Can Weather the Storm in Italy on June 20, 2011

Although the Italian government previously decided to continue its current incentive programs for solar projects through the end of August, the industry anticipates significant cut-backs in subsidies and other incentives at the end of the period …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Industrials & Transportation

  • Boeing Coverage Launch: $87 Trefis Price Estimate on June 24, 2011

The commercial airplanes division is the single-largest contributor to Boeing stock value, primarily due to the expected commercial launch of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner in the latter half of 2011 …

Given the pressure for cleaner and safer fracking techniques, companies drilling for oil & gas in shale deposits may have to hasten the adoption of these newer technologies …




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , Investing Ideas , Stocks , US Markets

Referenced Stocks: AAPL , AMD , BA , P

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